Why Celtics, Thunder, and Cavs are still big favorites after Game 1 upsets

The Knicks and Nuggets stole their respective Game 1s on Monday as 9-plus point underdogs. The Thunder (+170) and Celtics (+210) remain the favorites to win the championship, but their series and title odds took a hit after shocking collapses. The Pacers also beat the Cavaliers in Game 1 as huge underdogs. So far, the series underdog has won every second-round Game 1. How much has it impacted the series prices, and what does it mean for the trailing teams? Let's dive in.

Knicks 1-0 vs. Celtics

When a team lives by the three, it can also die by it. In Game 1, the Celtics attempted and missed the most threes in playoff history, launching 60 and connecting on only 15.

Theoretically, that projects well for the Celtics and poorly for the Knicks. Boston, which led the NBA in 3-point makes, shouldn't shoot that badly from distance again.

While attempting 37 of their final 49 shots from three isn't exactly a healthy shot diet, the Celtics' problem isn't the 3-point volume; it's how they're generating threes.

Boston insists on shooting more threes than any team in league history. The Celtics' personnel, featuring five shooters and many perimeter players who can exploit mismatches, creates a successful approach. Their 3-point philosophy works when they generate quality shots by getting in the paint, putting two defenders on the ball, and driving and kicking to force the defense into rotation.

There were plenty of uncontested catch-and-shoot threes that Boston uncharacteristically bricked in Game 1, but many were contested, dreadful shot attempts out of isolations, especially in the final minutes. There were too many late-game possessions where no Celtic reached the lane or even stepped inside the 3-point arc, making the offense easy to guard.

OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart wreaked havoc defensively on Boston's stars, forcing Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to combine for 14-for-43 shooting.

Tatum was particularly lousy. The Knicks switched ball screens involving their bigs (an adjustment after mostly playing drop coverage during their regular-season showdowns), and the Celtics often found the matchups they wanted, with Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, or Mitchell Robinson switched onto Tatum. But the NBA champ constantly settled, bailing out his weak defenders by taking contested, step-back jumpers. Fifteen of Tatum's 23 shot attempts were threes.

The three images below are the exact matchups the Celtics want with Towns, Robinson, and Brunson switched onto Tatum. All three possessions resulted in a challenged jumper and no points.

After losing all four regular-season matchups, the Knicks proved they can compete with the Celtics despite trailing by 20 in the second half and dealing with foul trouble throughout the game. New York acquired tenacious wing defenders Anunoby and Bridges for this matchup. Anunoby contributed 29 points and held the Celtics' starters to 1-for-15 shooting as the primary defender. Bridges made huge defensive plays in the final minutes.

But this is easily fixable for the Celtics. While they won't stop shooting an absurd number of threes, they should improve on punishing the Knicks' switches when Tatum sees an advantageous matchup. That will lead to higher quality looks for him and his teammates. New York still has matchup problems with Brunson and Towns, especially if they continue to switch ball screens. Plus, Boston, which was 7-for-25 on unguarded, catch-and-shoot threes, according to Jason Timpf of The Volume, won't shoot as poorly on its open looks moving forward.

Bettors are banking on Game 1 being an anomaly. Nearly 97% of the money wagered and 72% of the bets to win the series are on Boston. The Celtics are 10.5-point favorites in Game 2, and 84% of the spread money is on them to cover.

Nuggets 1-0 vs. Thunder

The Nuggets became the first team in NBA history to win a playoff game on one day of rest against an opponent with at least eight days of rest. Denver somehow wasn't fatigued after a grueling seven-game series against the Clippers. It battled back from a double-digit deficit to steal Game 1 as huge underdogs, thanks to an Aaron Gordon game-winner in the final seconds.

Two areas that haunted the Thunder during last season's playoff run materialized in Game 1. The Nuggets grabbed 20 more rebounds than the Thunder and collected 21 on offense alone, resulting in eight more second-chance points for Denver. Nikola Jokic secured 22 rebounds while adding 42 points as he physically dominated the Thunder's front line.

The Thunder had the fourth-worst defensive rebounding percentage last season. Since the All-Star break this year, they've had a top-10 opponent offensive rebounding rate. Pairing Isaiah Hartenstein with Chet Holmgren seemingly fixed their rebounding woes, but that wasn't the case in Game 1.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also needs more help from his co-stars. Jalen Williams, who struggled in the Thunder's second-round series last season, shot 5-for-20 from the field and finished with 16 points. Holmgren scored 12 points and only captured six rebounds. He also missed two crucial free throws in the final seconds, leading to Gordon's game-winning three.

The Thunder must adjust before a historically great season ends in a second straight exit in the conference semifinals. They're still considerable favorites in the series. While Denver undoubtedly has some advantages, I'd hesitate to pull the trigger on the Nuggets.

The Nuggets just played their eighth game in 16 days and won't have more than one day off between games until a potential Game 7. Without much depth, Denver plays its starters a heavy load. Oddsmakers expect exhaustion to kick in at some point, and they're doubling down on their Game 1 line. The Thunder are 10.5-point favorites in Game 2.

Pacers 1-0 vs. Cavaliers

The Pacers are the series underdog to wager on after Game 1. Sure, the 3-point disparity likely won't continue at its Game 1 rate - Indiana made 19 threes and shot 52% from deep, while Cleveland made nine and shot 23%.

However, Indiana's fast-paced, high-volume passing offense involving all five guys is difficult to guard. Tyrese Haliburton seamlessly drives into the paint and usually makes the right reads. More importantly, the Pacers' defense has ranked in the top 10 since the All-Star break.

The Cavs' uncertain health is the biggest factor. Darius Garland missed Game 1 with a toe injury; his Game 2 status is uncertain. Cleveland missed his shot creation as the entire load landed on Donovan Mitchell, who plays well alongside him. The team is easier to guard when one is out of the lineup.

Evan Mobley and De'Andre Hunter are questionable for Game 2 with ankle and thumb injuries, respectively. Cleveland could be missing three of its starters for Game 2 and beyond, and they presumably won't be completely healthy if they do play. None of the three were seen at Tuesday morning's shootaround, according to Underdog NBA.

Indiana has the talent and depth to compete with Cleveland. If the Cavs are missing key players, their impressive season might be cut short. They're still a 7.5-point favorite in Game 2, but the Pacers' series price will only drop if they pull off another upset.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.