Is it too early for these 5 underperforming teams to panic?
We're just two weeks into the 2018-19 season, but a sense of desperation appears to be creeping in for a handful of underperforming teams. While NBA trends usually don't stabilize until about the quarter mark of the schedule, these five squads are already showing significant cracks that look like roadblocks to meeting their (mostly) lofty expectations.
How concerned should each team be? And what, if anything, can they do to change their fortunes? Here's a look at their respective issues, from least to most worrisome:
Philadelphia 76ers
What's ailing them?
Being 4-4 after eight games is far from a catastrophe, but considering the Sixers were a presumptive Eastern Conference contender coming into the season, they've looked troublingly lackluster. They've yet to beat a quality opponent, have lost to all three of their biggest conference competitors by 15 points or more, and have fallen behind the Bucks, for now at least, in the East's pecking order.
The Sixers' biggest issue is a lack of outside shooting, and it's worth wondering how much leash they'll give Markelle Fultz. He's looked more comfortable than during his brief and bizarre rookie campaign, but he's still a hesitant and ineffective shooter. Because of that, the decision to start Fultz has been an abject failure so far. The floor is simply too cramped in the halfcourt when he plays alongside Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, and the Sixers have put up a hideous 89.1 offensive rating and a minus-14.2 net rating when all three of them are in the game. Meanwhile, lineups featuring Simmons and Embiid perform 33.5 points per 100 possessions better when sharpshooting J.J. Redick is swapped in for the sophomore guard.
It's mildly encouraging that Fultz is occasionally letting it fly from 3-point range (he's shooting 4-of-13 after attempting just one in 14 games last year), but if he won't pull the trigger on looks like these, does it matter?
That possession ultimately ended in a turnover - as so many of Philly's possessions do - when the Raptors triple-teamed Embiid in the post while Fultz went ignored on the wing and Simmons chilled on the left block. The Sixers continue to be one of the league's most careless teams with the ball, but their lack of spacing really compounds the issue. (It doesn't help that Simmons has shown zero development as a shooter, that Embiid no longer seems to be much of a 3-point threat, and that Dario Saric's outside shot seemingly got placed in a cryogenic freezer in the offseason.)
Philadelphia's still getting up a ton of threes, but lacking a primary ball-handler who's a threat to pull up means the offense hardly ever runs pick-and-rolls, which makes it more difficult to create clean looks from the corners. No team takes a higher percentage of its threes from above the break.
On the other end, Embiid hasn't been quite the rim-protecting menace he was last year, and the defense as a whole has been less than advertised. Saric, in particular, has struggled.
Is it time to panic?
It's still way too early to fret. Unlike the other teams on this list, the Sixers' core is extremely young, and there's no real pressure to win now, which is why experimenting with Fultz in the starting lineup isn't a bad idea, on its face. But there are still enough red flags to say this probably isn't the contender many expected. For now, it feels like Philadelphia's at least one piece (or at least one functional jump shot) away.
Potential Band-Aid: Moving Fultz to the bench
Potential panic move: Trading Fultz in a package for Jimmy Butler
Los Angeles Lakers
What's ailing them?
Despite employing LeBron James, the Lakers may be the team on this list whose rough start is least mystifying. There always figured to be an adjustment period, the configuration of the roster looked off-kilter from the start, and James' teams seem to experience blips of disappointment, discombobulation, and drama every regular season.
That doesn't mean the Lakers' 3-5 start isn't cause for alarm. They've demonstrated little to no defensive cohesion while surrendering more field-goal attempts in the restricted area than any other team in the league, which probably isn't ideal for a defense so light on rim protection. Their lack of reliable bigs has also contributed to ranking 23rd in defensive rebounding rate while their lack of shooting means they need to run constantly; no team is getting a higher share of its points on the break, which may not be sustainable.
There haven't been many positives. Los Angeles notched its only impressive win of the season when Lance Stephenson went bonkers in the fourth quarter. JaVale McGee has been outstanding so far, but relying on him feels like a setup for disappointment. James apparently hasn't lost his patience yet, but the truth is his lazy and inattentive defense (particularly in transition) has been a big part of the problem, and we've yet to see him really ratchet up his offensive focus to compensate. There are even times the Lakers' frenetic pace seems to catch up with James at the end of games, most notably in their near-disastrous squeaker over the Mavericks on Wednesday. Like, what is this?
Is it time to panic?
The Lakers have LeBron and enough young talent around him to figure things out in due time. But even if they do, this team, as presently constructed, doesn't look like a top-four seed in the West. The Lakers were always approaching this season with one eye fixed firmly on 2019-20, but will James' patience hold throughout the year, or will the 33-year-old with more than 54,000 NBA minutes on his odometer push for a roster shakeup? A few of his old teammates in Cleveland could probably be had.
Potential Band-Aid: Trading for Kyle Korver and/or Robin Lopez
Potential panic move: Firing Luke Walton
Houston Rockets
What's ailing them?
The Rockets have endured easily the most confounding start of any team in the league. A few months after swinging a 65-win wrecking ball through the regular season and putting the fear of God into the Warriors in the West finals, the Rockets have lost five of their first six games, including all four they've played at home - and they've lost them badly. The latest was a demolition at the hands of the Trail Blazers, at home, despite having a three-day rest advantage.
True, Chris Paul and James Harden have suited up for just two games together, but at least one of them has played in every contest, and the Rockets barely missed a beat when either star sat out last season (Paul and Harden overlapped for just 49 games). Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony's looked as lost as many feared he would, Clint Capela's looked a step slow, the copious 3-pointers haven't been falling, and the defense that everyone expected to regress has regressed.
Switching as often as Houston did last year was always going to be a dicey proposition given the personnel changes, but even in ostensibly manageable matchups, the Rockets are getting dusted at the point of attack - allowing dribble penetration, and then either hacking guys or offering only token back-line help. They've surrendered more points and a higher field-goal percentage (71.4!) from the restricted area than any other team, thanks to zero-resistance possessions like this one, in which three defenders have a chance to divert Damian Lillard's path to the rim ... but all of them decline:
Head coach Mike D'Antoni said he planned to ease off his switch-everything scheme, but then two days later changed his mind, concluding that a lot of the team's breakdowns were simply the result of poor communication and effort. It seems unlikely that Harden's return will help in that regard.
It will, however, help the offense, which has also been shockingly toothless. On top of the cold shooting, the Rockets haven't been attacking the rim or exploiting mismatches with the savagery they did last season. Paul's looked shaky. Eric Gordon's looked less explosive off the bounce. The whole team doesn't seem as sure of its identity. D'Antoni says they've lost their swagger. It's weird.
Is it time to panic?
Not yet. The Rockets, when healthy, are too good to struggle all season. But anything resembling last year's success - even just re-establishing themselves as the second-best team in the West, let alone pushing the Warriors again - already feels like a dwindling possibility. And unlike the Sixers and Lakers, the Rockets are built to win now. There's no other option. Their fingers are surely creeping toward the panic button.
Potential Band-Aid: Trading four first-round picks for Jimmy Butler
Potential panic move: Trading four first-round picks for Jimmy Butler
Oklahoma City Thunder
What's ailing them?
The Thunder have seemingly put a miserable start behind them with a pair of convincing wins, and those struggles were understandable given Russell Westbrook missed the first three games. But concerns about this roster were still laid bare in the process. The biggest of all: Where's the shooting going to come from?
Paul George should improve his percentages, but outside of him, Alex Abrines (currently at 30.4 percent from deep), and occasionally Patrick Patterson (showing signs of life!), the Thunder don't have a single credible long-range threat. All those Westbrook drive-and-kicks have nobody to convert them. The Thunder are shooting 23.7 percent on threes classified as "wide open" by NBA.com, and the gap between Westbrook's assists (7.8) and his potential assists (18.3) per game is second only to Paul's. OKC can expect some positive regression with accuracy, although volume will be just as big an issue.
The Thunder are capable of overcoming the math problem on a lot of nights by winning the possession battle - Steven Adams is a relentless offensive rebounder and the team's ball-pressuring defense forces a ton of turnovers - but the haphazard roster construction has made this an uphill battle.
They're decidedly lacking in two-way players. They still don't have enough secondary playmaking. Adams is vulnerable against stretch bigs (as Al Horford demonstrated last week), and the Thunder simply can't go small for long stretches, as lineups with Jerami Grant at center have been mauled on the glass. Everyone's holding their breath in anticipation of Andre Roberson's eventual return, but that won't help the offensive spacing, and there's no guarantee he'll be the same guy defensively after a brutal patellar tendon injury.
Is it time to panic?
It's probably closer to resignation than panic at this point. The Thunder are deep in the tax and effectively locked into this roster, which remains inherently limited despite hopes that its pieces would fit better after shedding Anthony in the offseason. It's probably time to recalibrate expectations. The Westbrook-George-Adams trio will likely still ensure a playoff berth, but in the hyper-competitive West, expecting more is probably asking too much.
Potential Band-Aid: Trading Terrance Ferguson for any half-decent stretch four
Potential panic move: ... there aren't many realistic moves to make
Washington Wizards
What's ailing them?
This is mostly covered here. In short: Spectacularly lazy defense compounded by poor communication, a stagnant offense defined by questionable shot selection and John Wall's ball-dominance, a fractured locker room, guys griping about shots, guys griping about guys griping about shots, and an ineffective bench ... you know, annual Wizardish stuff.
Add it all up, and Washington is 1-6 with the league's third-worst net rating.
Kelly Oubre's shown nice offensive development, Markieff Morris has had his moments, and Bradley Beal increasingly looks like he'd make a capable lead guard, but otherwise, the positives have been few and far between. The Wizards dog it in transition, blow help assignments, bite on every pump fake, and surrender an absurd amount of second-chance opportunities. They sure don't seem to enjoy playing together. And, sorry, Wall is owed how much money?? This is probably the most toxic team in the league.
Is it time to panic?
The Wizards have already endured their longest West Coast road trip of the season and getting Dwight Howard back should help the rebounding woes, if not the shot-distribution power struggle. Otto Porter can't be much worse than he's been. This team lives to underachieve, but it's still too talented to suck.
That said, yeah, it's probably time to panic.
Potential Band-Aid: Firing Scott Brooks
Potential panic move: Trading Wall and rebuilding around Beal