Bucks jump 76ers in East hierarchy after perfect start
Most preseason predictions had the East champion coming out of the Atlantic Division, with the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, or Philadelphia 76ers emerging.
The 5-0 Raptors are living up to the hype after seamlessly integrating a healthy Kawhi Leonard into the fold, and the Celtics still boast the stingiest defense in the league despite uncharacteristically cold shooting percentages from Kyrie Irving. Those two teams remain the favorites until proven otherwise.
But the 76ers? They're showing bigger cracks than the Liberty Bell, and they were no match for the undefeated Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night. Not only did the Bucks come away with a convincing 15-point victory, but they led from the second quarter onward behind another superhuman effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who stuffed the stat sheet with 32 points, 18 rebounds, 10 assists, two steals, and three blocks.
The loss dropped Philadelphia to 2-3, while Milwaukee improved to 4-0 behind its third straight double-digit win. And while there may be six months remaining in the season, the Bucks are clearly the superior team at the moment.
Philadelphia is still searching for an identity
The Markelle Fultz problem is well documented. Sixers head coach Brett Brown is caught between building the sophomore's delicate confidence and trying to win games. And he's failing on both fronts.
Fultz remains reluctant from beyond the arc, and the majority of his 9.6 shots per game are coming off inefficient pull-up mid-range jumpers that stall the offense. He's a minus-21 through the first five games of the season, and consistently gets yanked in the second half in favor of J.J. Redick, a clearly superior option who's second on the team in scoring behind Joel Embiid.
Redick has been phenomenal by every measure, but his outsized importance represents a deeper problem for the Sixers. With due respect to the veteran gunner, a 34-year-old shooting guard shouldn't be the primary perimeter threat on a playoff team. Redick had to score 31 points - including the go-ahead dagger - for the Sixers to barely squeak past the lowly Orlando Magic. That's just not a sustainable formula for success.
But there's no clear successor on the roster. Ben Simmons is a talented playmaker, but he still can't shoot from anywhere beyond five feet. Dario Saric is a decent fourth option, but he's been limited to spot-up duty to space the floor for Fultz in the starting lineup. Landry Shamet is a late first-round rookie trying to keep his head above water. And the front office also whiffed on bringing in a wing player during free agency.
Embiid is providing the only reason for optimism right now. Not only has he finally cut down on his turnover percentage (15.6 last season to 7.3 now), but his durability is vastly improving, as he leads the league in minutes played. Philadelphia is outscoring opponents by a healthy plus-4.5 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the floor. However, that margin plummets to minus-17 when he sits, as Amir Johnson and Mike Muscala have been woeful on defense.
The Sixers can still improve. Wilson Chandler will help steady the bench once he returns from injury, and Saric won't shoot 37 percent all season.
But the awkwardness around Fultz is causing a palpable tension on the floor, and it's discouraging that none of the Sixers' young players outside of Embiid made any substantial improvements this offseason.
Milwaukee's game plan is clear
The Bucks aren't as talented as Philadelphia, but they have a clear hierarchy and attacking plan. They're going to surround Antetokoumpo with shooters on offense and smother you with length on defense.
Mike Budenholzer is leading a revolution in Milwaukee. After never finishing above 24th in 3-point attempts during each of Anteotokounmpo's first six seasons, the Bucks are suddenly launching 41 threes per game, good for sixth in the league. Seven of their nine rotation players (Antetokounmpo and John Henson being the exceptions) are threats to shoot from deep, and Budenholzer has given every player the green light to fire away.
The results have been nothing short of phenomenal. Khris Middleton is averaging 24 points per game while posting 51-58-85 shooting splits. Eric Bledsoe looks reinvigorated and he's hitting 38 percent from deep on six attempts per game. Malcolm Brogdon is back in the starting lineup and thriving as an off-ball guard. Newcomers Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova have been great in their roles, and Milwaukee's offense ranks eighth.
The more encouraging development is taking place on the other end, as the Bucks are fourth in defensive rating. After years of tanking in Phoenix made him lazy, Bledsoe is taking pride in his defense again and is back to being the bulldog that he was in Los Angeles. Lopez has been a revelation as a rim protector, as he's allowing just 50 percent shooting around the basket, and Antetokounmpo is always looming for a help-side swat.
The Bucks are finally implementing a more conservative approach on defense. Budenholzer is prioritizing paint protection - as opposed to Jason Kidd's strategy that had his players scrambling like chickens with their heads cut off - and that's solving Milwaukee's two biggest weaknesses.
The team has improved from 29th in defensive rebounding percentage last season to fifth now, and the Bucks' foul rate is down from 26th to 16th. Milwaukee's big men are in a better position to rebound, and Lopez's underrated ability to box out has allowed Antetokounmpo to lead the league in rebounds with 16.5 per game.
After years of underachieving, the Bucks have finally found their identity. Budenholzer is bringing the best out of his roster by opening up the 3-point line and fortifying the interior defense, and it's clear after just one week that everyone is buying in.
The Bucks are going to challenge for 50 wins, and for now, they're already supplanting the Sixers as the third-best team in the East.