Folding Aces: When to Bench an Elite Fantasy Starting Pitcher

In-season roster management can cause many headaches over the course of the fantasy season. While the streaming options play themselves - you're not picking up a pitcher off waivers just to sit him - it's the fantasy elite that can occasionally cause problems when it comes to determining who to roster.

You'll never bench guys like Los Angeles Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw or Chicago Cubs SP Jake Arrieta; you drafted them to be your pitching anchors week in and week out. But even aces will have their bad games.

So how do we gauge? When do we take the plunge and actually bench a superstar pitcher in fantasy?

Playing at Coors Field

It's old hat by now, but not many pitchers have historically performed well at Coors Field. Even Kershaw and San Francisco Giants SP Madison Bumgarner have 4.63 and 4.21 ERAs, respectively, in Colorado for their careers.

Having spent their collective careers in the same division as the Rockies, these numbers are not as insignificant as perhaps Chicago Cubs SP Jake Arrieta's 16.20 ERA in Coors from his only career start there. No one is sitting Arrieta when the Cubs go to Colorado in late August. But that doesn't mean Arizona Diamondbacks SP Zack Greinke is a must-start in late June.

Pitchers relying on curveballs tend to struggle because the pitches don't break as much. The same can be said for sinkers. Greinke, in his only 2015 start at Coors Field, saw both his sinker and his curveball break less often and he generated far fewer whiffs than he did the following month in Washington.

The most successful pitcher in Coors this season has been Dodgers SP Kenta Maeda, who went 6 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing only three hits and one walk while striking out eight. Maeda mixed his pitches and relied heavily on his slider. He managed a 31.66 percent whiff rate with that pitch. Incidentally, in his worst start, Maeda did not manage that good a whiff rate with his slider.

You're rolling the dice every time you start a pitcher in Coors. While the outcome might be okay, there's certainly no guarantee of that.

Following an Injury

Cleveland Indians SP Carlos Carrasco is poised to return from injury in late May or early June. The Indians host the Orioles, Rangers and Royals between May 27 and June 5. After this, they travel to face the Mariners and Angels.

Drafted as a top-20 SP, Carrasco owners are understandably anxious to get him back in their rotations and the idea of sitting him and losing any more time sounds ludicrous. Ask owners of Astros SP Lance McCullers who managed to slide him in his first start how they felt after he got bombed for five hits over 4 2/3 innings on Friday. The answer is not good.

Owners who didn't start McCullers were probably handcuffed by the fact that they were unable to activate him to start on the same day. If Carrasco draws the Orioles or Rangers, it's best to wait it out. Both teams currently sit in the top 10 in both batting average and runs scored. Baltimore leads the majors in home runs, too.

Late in the Week

This is purely a head-to-head strategy. If your pitching staff has a slight lead in ERA and/or WHIP heading into the weekend and one of your top pitchers has a weekend date with an offensive powerhouse, it might be wise to lay off. Granted, greediness might prevail, especially if Ks or wins are on the line.

For example, St. Louis Cardinals SP Carlos Martinez - a borderline top-25 SP - faced the Dodgers. Having already had his previous start pushed back already due to fatigue/sickness, he allowed four runs on five hits over five innings while only striking out two. Starting him may have done enough damage to both categories while failing to deliver in strikeouts.

Bad starts early in the week can change the complexion of the matchup with enough time to spare so the strategy for streaming changes. But when pitching has performed fairly well, that's when roster management gets tough. Martinez should have been an obvious sit.

In the Midst of Prolonged Struggles

Sonny Gray owners have possibly been dutifully continued to start him despite his consistent struggles. While the Boston Red Sox massacring him in 3.2 innings made a semblance of sense, him allowing six runs, three earned, against Tampa Bay on Sunday may have been the last straw.

Gray opened the season with four consecutive quality starts and was striking out close to a batter per inning. Then the wheels came off - and have stayed off. Chances are owners will trot him out again against the Yankees because they rank near the bottom of team OPS and most other offensive categories. But that's the same justification for starting him versus Tampa Bay.

With players like Gray and Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright, they're best kept on the bench until they can show a solid start or two. If that means losing out on a solid start, so be it. They've given no reason to trust them even in favorable matchups.

Don't Overthink It

In his last start against the Angels, Texas Rangers SP Cole Hamels went five innings, allowing four runs on seven hits while striking out only four and walking the same. His next start comes against the Oakland Athletics, but he gets another crack at the Angels after that. Start him.

New York Mets SP Jacob deGrom's worst start this season came against the San Diego Padres when he allowed eight hits and three earned runs over five innings. The Padres have the third worst OPS in MLB. One good showing doesn't mean they're deGrom's Kryptonite.

Nearly every starting pitcher will have at least a handful of rough starts this season. Kershaw and Arrieta are less likely than others, but once we get past the top tier, there will be times that it might be best to take a seat.

It's especially important in rotisserie because of the accumulated nature of the statistics. Limiting exposure to these big games is paramount.