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How high can Ovechkin climb on NHL's all-time goals list?

Rafael Suanes / USA TODAY Sports

It was a night to remember for Alex Ovechkin.

Related: Ovechkin becomes 1st Russian to score 500 goals

Playing in front of an eager home crowd - including his incredibly proud parents - and surrounded by teammates intent on assisting him in any way possible, the Washington Capitals superstar recorded career goals 500 and 501 during Sunday's game against the Ottawa Senators, becoming the fifth-fastest player in NHL history to reach that mark.

Among active players, Ovechkin now sits third in goals, with those directly above and below him having played considerably more games.

Players Games Played Goals
Jaromir Jagr 1589 737
Jarome Iginla 1435 601
Alex Ovechkin 801 501
Marian Hossa 1211 493
Patrick Marleau 1368 470

In terms of the all-time list, Ovechkin's 501 goals currently rank him 42nd, a position that's set to change for as long as he continues to put on that Capitals jersey.

But just how high on the all-time list can he climb?

Here's what we know for sure: Ovechkin is under contract with the Capitals through to the end of the 2020-21 season, meaning five more years after this one, in which he hit the 500 mark. Since entering the NHL in 2005-06, he's averaging an astounding 0.625 goals per game. Assuming he stays healthy and continues to score at that level, we can project how many goals he'll have by the time his contract's up - at which point his NHL future will likely get cloudy.

With 40 games left this season, Ovechkin's currently on pace for 51 goals, which would give him a total of 526, good for 33rd on the all-time list. Another five seasons amounts to 410 regular-season games, which, at his current career goal-scoring pace, would mean an additional 256 goals, and 782 overall, slotting him third all-time.

Player Games Played Goals Goals per game
Wayne Gretzky 1487 894 0.601
Gordie Howe 1767 801 0.453
*Alex Ovechkin 1251 782 0.625
Brett Hull 1269 741 0.584
Jaromir Jagr 1589 737 0.464

*Projected

It should be noted that Jaromir Jagr continues to pile up the goals himself as a member of the Florida Panthers, and has stated his desire to play for as long as possible, so his current total of 737 goals will undoubtedly rise as well. Jagr's all but assured of passing Brett Hull for third place this year; whether he stays around long enough to pass Gordie Howe remains to be seen.

In Ovechkin's case, to assume he will keep up his current pace may be somewhat presumptuous, as even the Great One himself experienced a severe drop-off later in his career.

(Courtesy: QuantHockey.com)

A major factor in play, therefore, is how long Ovechkin decides to remain in the NHL. Set to turn 36 shortly after his contract expires, he could still have a handful of seasons ahead of him should he decide to extend his stay in Washington or even test the free-agent market, which would all but assure him a place in the top three even after factoring in a drop off.

Either way, based on his track record and his ability to remain relatively injury-free (he's never missed more than 10 games in a single season to date), there's every reason to believe Ovechkin can challenge both Hull and the still-active Jagr, with Howe's 801 mark remaining very much within his reach.

The possibility of his unseating Wayne Gretzky for the top spot, however, is another matter. What remains a virtually unbreakable record now appears slightly less impossible for him to reach, although many things would still have to go right for Ovechkin to climb that high.

Unfortunately, Ovechkin could have had another season plus 34 games to his credit if the NHL hadn't wiped 2004-05 and part of 2012-13 off the books due to lockouts; had those games been played, his top-three status at the end of his career would be all but guaranteed.

At any rate, anything beyond 501 is based purely on conjecture and projection. What can't be argued is that Ovechkin is quite simply one of the greatest goal scorers in the history of the game, the likes of which we may never see again.

Appreciate him while you can.

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