Fantasy: Tight End Primer
Fantasy Position Primers
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Tight Ends
We come to the end of our primers series with a position that perhaps best exemplifies the modern NFL. Today's tight ends are a far cry from those of decades past - they're bigger, faster and, most importantly, highly-adept receivers who can stretch defenses and make plays downfield. Top tight ends were mid-round picks (at best) in fantasy football only five years ago. That's no longer the case.
It's important to remember that these primers are not intended to be tiers for drafting. You can view our complete tight end rankings here.
The Rare 1st-Rounder
Jimmy Graham, Saints - A healthy Jimmy Graham provides the kind of positional advantage that wins fantasy matchups. He’s a WR1 playing a position with far more scarcity - and the fantasy world has finally caught on, which means Graham is being drafted after only the consensus top five running backs and Calvin Johnson. Is a huge advantage at tight end worth passing on an elite talent at another position? That could depend on how confident you are in your ability to find sleeper tailbacks and receivers late in the draft and on the waiver wire.
The All-In Gamble
Rob Gronkowski, Patriots - Do you like to live dangerously? With all the evidence suggesting Gronk’s ahead of schedule in his recovery from a torn ACL and likely to be on the field in Week 1, his ADP has risen to the early third round. Is it an insanely steep price for an injury risk who appeared in just seven games last season, or is it an opportunity to acquire one of the NFL’s true game-changing talents outside the first two rounds? There’s little doubt that if Gronkowski stays healthy for 16 games, he’ll provide the kind of value that wins fantasy leagues. The question is whether 10 or 13 games out of him is worth passing on a player like Randall Cobb or Andre Ellington.
A Step Below
Julius Thomas, Broncos - It’s funny how Thomas has more games missed due to injury in his career than Gronkowski, but only the latter is discussed as an injury risk. Thomas isn’t a truly elite physical talent, but he’s a special player nonetheless. Paired with a player like Peyton Manning in the historic 2013 Broncos offense, the result was nearly 800 yards and 12 touchdowns. Expect some regression this year, perhaps more on the part of Manning than Thomas.
Jordan Cameron, Browns - Cameron managed to post strong fantasy numbers a season ago despite a rotating cast of weak quarterbacks that included Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell. Things can’t possibly be worse for Cameron with either Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel behind center, right? That might be missing the point. Remember that Josh Gordon, the league’s leading receiver a year ago, probably won’t be around to draw coverage. Cameron should expect to have defenses focus on him.
Vernon Davis, 49ers - Davis caught 13 touchdowns last season, but that number should dip a bit with a healthy Michael Crabtree back in the fold and Stevie Johnson added to snag deep targets.
Trusty But Getting Rusty
Jason Witten, Cowboys - The argument for Witten is that he’s as reliable as they come and the Cowboys’ defense is so bad that Tony Romo and company will always be in shootouts. The argument against Witten is that he’s just so … boring. Even if he reaches his ceiling, he probably won’t post top-three tight end numbers. If you’re the kind of person who hates surprise parties, Witten might be your man.
Antonio Gates, Chargers - Gates' 11-year career has been truly remarkable. In some ways, he was the first "modern tight end." But all good things must come to an end and Gates' four touchdowns last season were his fewest since his rookie year. Don't expect much of a bump in his stats this year.
Heath Miller, Steelers - Miller may have the best chance of anyone on this list to go from being undrafted to posting top-ten tight end numbers. It’s not because he’s a special talent; he isn't. It’s because the Steelers’ new no-huddle offense has the chance to be pretty dynamic and Jerricho Cotchery and his 10 touchdowns are now in Carolina. A lot of those red-zone looks should go to Miller.
Hard to Get Excited About
Greg Olsen, Panthers - At age 29, Olsen is facing the most fantasy-friendly situation of his career. Cam Newton has rookie Kelvin Benjamin and almost no one else to throw to in Carolina. Olsen is going to see plenty of the ball. Still … is anyone excited about Olsen’s prospects this year? Can he seize the opportunity and put it all together or are we in for yet another ho-hum season from a player who has averaged just five touchdowns per season in his career?
Martellus Bennett, Bears - At best Bennett is the fourth option in the Bears' receiving game. It will probably take a career year for Jay Cutler, or a long-term injury to Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffery, to make Bennett a high-end fantasy starter.
Dennis Pitta, Ravens - Pitta looked better than expected after returning from a major injury last season and Joe Flacco seems to key on him. The Ravens don't exactly run a high-powered offense, however; and Steve Smith could steal some of Pitta's "safety valve" targets.
The Next Wave?
Zach Ertz, Eagles - Is there enough to go around in Chip Kelly’s offense to make a running back, at least two wide receivers and a tight end all viable fantasy options? That might be asking too much, but consider that the physically imposing Ertz could have the inside edge to become the Eagles’ top passing option in the red zone. Jeremy Maclin isn’t anything special and Riley Cooper is just another guy. Ertz might still be a year away from big things, but don’t be shocked if the No. 35 pick in the NFL Draft a year ago is a breakout star on this team.
Jordan Reed, Redskins - Reed has special talent - one might compare him to Aaron Hernandez on the field if doing so wasn’t taboo - but he carries a major medical red flag. He missed seven games last season with a concussion and the issue seemed to linger into the offseason. Is Reed one hit away from another extended absence? Or can he stay healthy and tear it up with a potentially revitalized Robert Griffin III?
Kyle Rudolph, Vikings - Drafting Rudolph is as much about drafting the player himself as it is about drafting his new offensive coordinator. Norv Turner should work magic on Rudolph’s fantasy value like he did for Antonio Gates for years in San Diego and Jordan Cameron in Cleveland last season.
Ladarius Green, Chargers - Antonio Gates has to take a big step back at some point, right? If this is the year, Green appears ready to assume a role as one of Philip Rivers’ favorite targets. Statistically, he's one of the NFL's elite deep threats. That's very rare for a tight end.
Eric Ebron, Lions - Rookie tight ends are rarely fantasy-relevant, but Ebron has the raw talent to be the exception. The No. 10 overall pick in May's draft is in a nice situation, with Calvin Johnson drawing most of defenses' attention.