DFS: The Slate, Part II - A Detailed Look at the Week 5 Schedule
Here's a breakdown of Sunday's early slate of games (click here for Part I; all times ET):
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Cardinals -4 (opened at -2 1/2)
O/U: 46 (opened at 44)
Weather: Dome
Cardinals QB Carson Palmer had his toughest encounter of the season in Week 4 and still racked up 352 yards and a score. He should have no trouble returning value against the host Lions, who are allowing more than 272 passing yards per game. ... Chris Johnson's days as Arizona's bellcow back aren't ending anytime soon, despite the impending return of Andre Ellington. That said, the Lions are allowing just 3.6 YPC, so Johnson is probably only a GPP play this week. ... WR Larry Fitzgerald carries a much larger price tag these days, reducing his value somewhat - but he's still a great play in all formats, especially with Palmer as a combo deal. ... WR John Brown is all home-run, all the time; take a flier in GPPs but stay away in cash games. ... Lions QB Matthew Stafford has the unfortunate task of trying to be productive against a Cardinals defense that is formidable and angry. Better luck next week, Matthew. ... Avoid the Lions running back situation until it becomes more clear. ... WR Calvin Johnson may be one of the league's early-season DFS disappointments, but he's still seeing a wealth of targets and carries his most reasonable price tag of the year. Take the plunge in cash games, as the Lions may need to throw a bunch to keep up. ... Golden Tate carries too big a price tag for the modest value he carries.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Lions 13
DFS MVP: Carson Palmer
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Patriots -7 1/2 (opened at -7 1/2)
O/U: 50 1/2 (opened at 49)
Weather: Dome
Fresh off a Week 4 bye, Patriots QB Tom Brady gets a Cowboys defense that will welcome back Rolando McClain and Greg Hardy; Sean Lee is on track to play, as well. Brady is elite, but he could have his hands a little fuller than oddsmakers think. He's a strong GPP play but better options may be available on the cash-game front. ... RB Dion Lewis is the clear-cut passing-down back, and should easily outsnap LeGarrette Blount in what is expected to be a high-scoring game. ... WR Julian Edelman is a cash-game stud no matter what the matchup, though he's priced prohibitively for tournament play. ... TE Rob Gronkowski is in the same situation from a cash-game perspective, but should be more widely owned in GPPs. He's an all-format play. ... Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden will need plenty of garbage time to reach value against a formidable Patriots defense; here's betting he doesn't, no matter what happens. ... RB Joseph Randle won't see enough carries in this one to be worth his price tag, so avoid him. ... The receiving corps remains a mess, and shouldn't be rostered. ... TE Jason Witten hasn't scored since Week 1, but he represents Dallas' best shot at a TD in this one. He's a great option in both formats based on what should be plenty of volume.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Cowboys 14
DFS MVP: Rob Gronkowski
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Broncos -4 (opened at -5 1/2)
O/U: 45 (opened at 43 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 76 F; E wind @ 3 mph
Four games into the season, Broncos QB Peyton Manning still doesn't look quite right. Is he on the decline? We'll know more after he faces a Raiders team he burned for five TDs in the first of two meetings last season. As his present price point, he should be avoided in cash games and used sparingly in GPPs. ... RB C.J. Anderson may be the "No. 1 back" according to the Denver coaching staff, but let's face it: he's in a time-share with Ronnie Hillman. Neither is an attractive DFS option except as a longshot GPP play. ... WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both tournament-worthy options; take Thomas for the higher upside, Sanders for the modest savings. ... Raiders QB Derek Carr has had two gems and two clunkers; lean toward a latter type of outing against a downright nasty Denver defense. He's a GPP-only play. ... RB Latavius Murray has just 41 carries in three games not against the Cleveland Browns, and will likely see a similar workload in a game in which Oakland will almost certainly be playing from behind. ... WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have seen a virtually identical number of targets, making the lower-salaried Crabtree the better value play; Cooper has more upside, but has reached the point salary-wise where he's better suited to GPPs.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Raiders 20
DFS MVP: Demaryius Thomas
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Giants -7 1/2 (opened at -7)
O/U: 43 1/2 (opened at 43)
Weather: Clear, 61 F; SW wind @ 5 mph
49ers QB Colin Kaepernick's passing yards by game: 165, 335, 67, 160. There's little to be gained by trusting such an erratic pass-thrower, especially in a road game. Steer clear. ... RB Carlos Hyde has seen no more than 15 carries in each of the last three games; with this game expected to be one-sided, a similar workload - and subsequent drop in DFS value - is in play. Trust him only in tournaments, and only if you believe San Francisco can keep things close. ... WRs Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith are likely non-factors in a tough road tilt against the Giants with Kaepernick under center. ... Giants QB Eli Manning is in prime position for a breakout game, facing an already-tattered 49ers defense that will also be without LB Ahmad Brooks. Get Manning into as many lineups as possible. ... RB Rashad Jennings showed signs of life last week, and should see a decent workload in a game the Giants are expected to control. He's a solid GPP play. ... WR Odell Beckham Jr. has had just one elite game so far; after Sunday, it'll be two. He's pricey, but well worth it. ... Rueben Randle is a great low-salary option in either format; he should see plenty of action against a soft defense.
Prediction: Giants 30, 49ers 17
DFS MVP: Odell Beckham Jr.
Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Chargers -3 1/2 (opened at -3)
O/U: 46 (opened at 44 1/2)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 92 F; W wind @ 5 mph
Steelers QB Michael Vick is no longer a viable NFL quarterback; it took him just one game to undo Antonio Brown's 35-game streak of five-reception, 50-yard games. He's best left alone. ... Vick's poor showing in place of the injured Ben Roethlisberger puts even more pressure on RB Le'Veon Bell to be the team's offensive focal point; he'll have a ton of touches in San Diego and can be safely rostered in all formats. ... Brown's value takes a major hit with Vick under center, leaving him perilously close to being unrosterable. Take a chance in GPPs based solely on his skill level, but remember who's throwing him the ball. ... WR Martavis Bryant may return from a season-opening four-game suspension, but isn't worth choosing this week. ... TE Heath Miller is in the same boat, but his low price tag makes him a speculative GPP option. ... Chargers QB Philip Rivers is going to throw a lot of passes - and against a porous Steelers pass defense, that's a recipe for success. Use him in all formats; he has as high a ceiling as any QB in his price range. ... RB Melvin Gordon is treading water, while Danny Woodhead thrives in games like this and should be heavily owned in tournament play. ... WR Keenan Allen's targets through four games: 17, 4, 18, 7. He's due for another heavy-target game, and should be a terrific play in all formats. ... TE Antonio Gates returns from his own four-game ban; he's a Rivers favorite, and will be well rested. Expect some red-zone looks, making him an ideal GPP play.
Prediction: Chargers 30, Steelers 24
DFS MVP: Philip Rivers