Basic NFL DFS Strategy: Studying the Weather

For all the on-field factors a daily fantasy player has to considering heading into NFL Sunday, one of the most important areas of research has nothing to do with the actual game.

Weather can have a significant impact on the outcome of a game, which means DFS players need to be on top of the latest conditions at every outdoor venue. This is especially important later in the season, where cold and inclement weather can play havoc with projections and force DFS players to consider other options.

Here are examples of advantages - or disadvantages - teams may face in certain conditions:

Hot Weather: When the mercury hits the high-80s and 90s, all players are at risk of subpar performances due to early fatigue. Games played at high temperatures are rare occurrences, usually taking place in the first few weeks of the season. DFS participants should choose skill players from these games with caution, as they may see diminished workloads.

Cold Weather: When the temperature dips, certain teams’ production does, as well. Teams from cold-weather cities tend to fare better at home during the colder months than they do earlier in the season; this is especially true when the opposing teams play in warm-weather cities or controlled climates. Favor home team players in cold-weather games.

Inclement Weather: DFS players should take a long look at teams facing rainy or snowy conditions. Poor surfaces generally benefit offenses, which enjoy the benefit of earlier reaction time and pre-determined routes that can leave defenders struggling to maintain footing and gain speed. The wetter the field, the greater the advantage for the playmakers.

Windy Conditions: A stiff breeze can have a significant negative impact on scoring. Teams playing into the wind are more likely to be conservative, either by leaning on the running game or by attempting shorter passes. Strong-armed QBs have a large advantage here, since they can make plays into both head-on breezes and crosswinds.

Climate Control (domed stadiums): Teams with excellent offenses often thrive in domed stadiums, since there are no weather-related concerns to overcome. This takes a part of the guesswork out of determining which players have strong matchups, but DFS participants still need to take every other factor into consideration.

Weather conditions shouldn’t be the most important factor when considering who to choose, but they should be monitored - either to seize even the smallest advantage, or to fade a player who might find himself in adverse scoring conditions. The biggest takeaway is to not be caught off guard by severe weather, while at the same time not overreacting to it.