Basic NFL DFS Strategy: Finding the Perfect Quarterback Play

In daily fantasy, as in life, perfection is virtually unattainable.

Building a flawless DFS football roster takes a combination of luck and skill equal to converting a horse racing superfecta, or winning six straight Texas Hold ‘Em hands at a 10-seat table. But if you’re going to take your shot at a perfect lineup, you’ll need to spend the majority of your time deciding who to play at quarterback.

In the same way that the QB position almost always makes or breaks a full-season fantasy roster, the correct pick in DFS contests can lift a decent, well-balanced roster into a high payout - while the incorrect pick can torpedo even the strongest lineup.

While the premise is simple enough, putting it into practice in DFS play can be complex. The obvious approach is to try and secure the quarterback who scores the most fantasy points - and in most cases, that tactic will bear fruit. But to truly succeed in DFS - especially in games with guaranteed prize pools - the goal should be slightly different:

To win at daily fantasy, you need to select quarterbacks that return the most value.

What’s the difference, you might be asking? It’s a potentially significant one.

Let’s compare two QBs - Indianapolis Colts standout Andrew Luck and New England Patriots legend Tom Brady. Nearly everyone would agree that, all things being equal, Luck is a good bet to produce more fantasy points than Brady in a given week.

That may be true, but there’s virtually no chance that Luck and Brady will be priced the same heading into the week. So while Luck is the stronger choice in a vacuum, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s better value. To assess value, let’s divide the player’s salary by the number of fantasy points he accumulates (all figures made up):

Luck: $9,000 salary / 45 fantasy points = $200 per point

Brady: $7,000 salary / 36 fantasy points = $194.40 per point

That said, there comes a point at which the salary-per-point breakdown loses some of its luster. Consider the example below:

Brady: $7,000 salary / 36 fantasy points = $194.40 per point

Ryan Fitzpatrick: $5,000 salary / 27 fantasy points = $185.18 per point

On the surface, Fitzpatrick appears to be the better “value” play - but he produces so few points relative to the elite QB options that week, he actually puts his DFS owner in a tough position. That owner would need to rack up big points at virtually every other position.

For this reason, value seeking comes with a caveat: DFS players must be willing to spend enough money to land a quarterback who will finish in the top five in positional scoring. With so much emphasis on the position as a point-producer, anything lower than that forces the player to hit home runs with each of his other picks - and that still won’t guarantee GPP riches.

Tournament Quarterback Strategy

Here are five rules you should follow when deciding on a DFS quarterback in guaranteed prize pools:

Never take the most expensive QB. The chances of the highest-priced passer registering the best dollar-per-point ratio among elite QBs is always remote. And since succeeding in GPP is all about extracting the most value, you’re better off settling for a quarterback with a lower salary despite the reduced chance of being the top play that week.

When in doubt, reach for the sky. You’ll often find yourself deciding between quarterbacks with similar salaries. In GPP play, upside is everything - so break down which QB has the best chance at a huge game, and lean in that direction. If that doesn’t help break the tie, feel free to enter multiple rosters with different quarterbacks in each one. Strength in numbers!

Ignore recency bias. Streaks and slumps are non-predictive, despite some people insisting otherwise. Every game represents a separate individual outcome; sure, players can get “hot” or “cold”, but that has to do with matchups, playing time and other factors. If you sense a player is undervalued because he has struggled, don’t let it deter you. Always seek value.

Don’t fear the blowout. One of the biggest mistakes a novice DFS player can make is to ignore the QB in games where one team is favored over another by a significant margin. Even if the result comes to pass, that quarterback is almost assuredly going to put up a big total before his team runs out the clock and/or pulls him from the game. Take those points with a smile.

Be contrarian. You’ll read about this a lot in our GPP guides and strategy posts, but being contrarian is the best way to give yourself a chance at the big prize. Setting your roster apart from the rest of the field can be difficult at times, since it will often force you to reconsider some of your favorite picks. But with QB play, it can make a significant positive difference.

Cash Game Quarterback Strategy

Deciding on quarterbacks in cash games requires a different approach:

Consider the most expensive QBs. The name of the game in cash play is security. You don’t have to swing for the fences in order to cash in H2H or 50/50, so be cautious and take the sure points where you can get them. To that end, the highest-priced QBs on a given week represent the highest-floor choices - so don’t hesitate to pounce on them.

When in doubt, reach for the … ground? Building on the previous point, consistency and dependability are the marks of a great cash game QB pick. When faced with a decision between two pass throwers of similar salary, always take the safer pick. Nothing in DFS is guaranteed, but you increase your chances of cash game success by playing it safe.

Focus on high totals and low spreads: This is a good philosophy for every position and game type, but it’s especially useful within the cash-game sphere. Those 34-31 thrillers may not be good for fans’ heart rates, but they’re great for DFS cash game players looking to maximize value in a given week. The higher the total, the better.

Ignore the contrarian approach: In cash games, all you’re interested in is points. So go get them. If that means selecting players you know will be popular with other DFS owners, then so be it. While it may mean having your matchup come down to a handful of non-like players, that’s a much better scenario than swinging for the fences and coming up empty-handed.