Tom Brady's suspension will have major betting impact, but books won't overreact
With the news of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's four-game suspension stemming from the "Deflategate" scandal, oddsmakers and bettors alike are scrambling to figure out a way to attack the news.
Brady will miss the Patriots' home games with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars, and road dates with the Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys. His absence from those contests could impact the lines by as much as a touchdown.
"He means the world to them and he’s the major factor on that team," Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Jason Logan of Covers. "He's worth a full touchdown, depending on who they're playing. If they're like 14-point favorites, he might not be worth that much. But I'd say about a touchdown. He’s as big as they come and definitely near the top."
In the immediate wake of the news, the Patriots dropped from consensus six-point favorites to one-point favorites in their opener against the Steelers.
While Brady's impact on the Patriots' odds in the short term could be fairly significant, books aren't overreacting to his absence in the long term, and aren't going to make significant shifts to their lines.
In anticipation of the suspension, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook lowered the Patriots' season win total from 10.5 to 10.
"We took some money on (under 10.5), and we were definitely aggressive in moving that," SuperBook assistant manager Ed Salmons told Marcus DiNitto of Sporting News early Monday.
The SuperBook kept the Patriots' win total at 10 following the announcement of the suspension, but adjusted its AFC East division odds.
| Team | Pre-suspension | Post-suspension |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -180 | -160 |
| Dolphins | +350 | +350 |
| Bills | +450 | +450 |
| Jets | +900 | +700 |
The Patriots will now have four months to prepare sophomore Jimmy Garoppolo to start the team's first month of games and prove its supporters right.
With that said, it seems likely Brady's suspension will be appealed and reduced. That would give oddsmakers with the foresight not to overreact to Monday's news the upper hand.