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Prospect Watch: Frank Kaminsky threatening top-12 status quo

Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports

There's been a great battle brewing between centers for the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft. There's been a point guard shoot up from the end of the lottery to certain top-five status. There's been the usual shuffling within tiers that can be expected right up until draft night.

But to this point, there's been no shakeup in the consensus top-12. For months, ESPN's Chad Ford and Draft Express have more or less agreed on which players would be selected with the draft's first dozen picks, just not on the order in which they'd be selected.

That could now be changing, with Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky turning in an unbelievable season and pushing himself firmly into the lottery discussion.

Kaminsky has some warts, namely that he's not a terrific athlete, particularly strong or at all fleet of foot, all of which make his rebounding and defense difficult to project. But there's also a lot to like.

In short, few big men can score in the variety of ways Kaminsky can. He's averaging 18.4 points and 2.6 assists, shooting 55.9 percent from the floor and 41 percent from 3-point range. He's a capable playmaker from the elbows or block, his stroke is pure enough to envision him hitting the NBA three and he has an array of nifty post moves thanks to a delicate touch and strong footwork.

Some have gotten carried away with his potential and NBA player comparisons, but that's understandable considering the strides he's taken since a disappointing first two years, after which he was considered a weakness for the Badgers, not a key reason they could land a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Big seniors perceived to be lacking in athleticism aren't exactly what scouts drool over, but his play has been enough to push his stock high enough that we're now looking at a top-13 rather than a top-12.

March 11 Rank Jan. 7 Avg Feb. 4 Avg Feb. 25 Avg ESPN RANK DX RANK
Jahlil Okafor - C 1 1 1 1 1
Karl-Anthony Towns - C 3 3.5 2 2 2
Emmanuel Mudiay - PG 2 2.5 3.5 3 4
D'Angelo Russell - PG 11.5 3.5 3.5 4 3
Kristaps Porzingis - PF 4.5 5.5 6.5 5 8
Willie Cauley-Stein - C 5.5 6.5 7 7 7
Mario Hezonja - SF 8.5 11 7 8 6
Stanley Johnson - SF 10 7.5 7.5 12 5
Kevon Looney - PF 8 7.5 9.5 6 13
Myles Turner - C 10 10 9.5 9 10
Justise Winslow - SF 6 11 10.5 10 9
Kelly Oubre - SF 9 8.5 11 11 11
Frank Kaminsky - C 13 12

(Courtesy: ESPNDraftExpress)

Which team ends up taking a chance on Kaminsky will come down to which teams make and narrowly miss the playoffs. The back end of the lottery could contain a handful of teams considering there are tight, multi-team races for the final playoff spots in each conference.

What's becoming more clear is which teams will likely pick in the top-four, selecting between a pair of intriguing centers in Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor and a pair of big point guards in Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell.

It's the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Minnesota Timebrwolves and Los Angeles Lakers secured at the bottom of the standings

TANK RANK TEAM W-L GB TOP-3 ODDS
1 Knicks 12-51 - 64.2%
2 76ers 14-49 2 51.6%
3 Timberwolves 14-48 2.5 51.4%
4 Lakers 17-46 5 37.7%
5 Magic 21-44 8 29.1%
6 Kings 21-41 9.5 21.5%
7 Nuggets 23-41 10.5 15.0%
8 Pistons 23-40 11 9.9%
9 Nets 25-37 13.5 6.1%
10 Celtics 26-36 14.5 4.0%
11 Jazz 27-36 15 2.9%

The Utah Jazz have played themselves out of a top-five pick with a 7-2 stretch, while the Lakers and Sacramento Kings appear to be very aware they need to lose more to ensure they keep their picks.

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