Countdown to Opening Day - 18: Royals banking on TJ patient Kris Medlen
In this 30-day series, theScore's MLB editors will preview the 2015 season with an in-depth look at some of the significant numbers - statistical milestones, jersey numbers and general miscellanea - poised to pop up throughout the campaign.
Kris Medlen may be one of the most underrated signings of the winter.
The crafty right-hander is still recovering from his second Tommy John surgery last March, making his signing a gamble for Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore. However, the move has tremendous upside and Moore was smart to sign Medlen to an incentive-laden contract. The former Atlanta Brave may not return until the second half of the 2015 campaign, as it has been 18 months since he last pitched in a live game, but the $2 million he'll make is an absolute bargain.
Here's a look at Medlen's numbers since transitioning from the bullpen to starting rotation:
Year | W/L | ERA | K/9 | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | 10-1 | 1.57 | 7.8 | 4.5 |
2013 | 15-12 | 3.11 | 7.2 | 3.3 |
Medlen's salary gets bumped up to $5.5 million in 2016 and a mutual option is in place for 2017 with a $1-million buyout. He can also earn an additional $9.5 million over the two years with incentives. If Medlen can recapture his effectiveness prior to the surgery and regain his confidence as a front-end starter, the Royals may not miss James Shields one bit.
The only question is: When will Medlen return to the mound?
The 29-year-old expects to contribute this season, but isn't going to rush back following his second serious medical procedure.
"This time around I haven't paid attention to the time frame. I worry about how I feel today. I'm taking it a day at a time. ... We're going to be a little bit more cautious because it's the second time," Medlen said recently at a team fan festival. "Having a lot of depth on your team, they're comfortable with that process, taking it a little slower, and making sure I'm good to go. Physically, I feel great, but they had to drill more holes and they're more worried about the bone density this time around."
Medlen's steamer projections for the upcoming season are as follows:
IP | W | L | ERA | K/9 |
---|---|---|---|---|
112 | 6 | 6 | 3.82 | 6.5 |
Medlen will have to squeeze into a rotation that already features Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas, Jeremy Guthrie, Edinson Volquez and Danny Duffy.