40 Fantasy Facts - AL West Edition

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Looking for an edge in your fantasy baseball drafts? Here are 40 facts from the 2016 season involving players from the American League West:

Houston Astros

• We all know that 2B Jose Altuve is an all-world talent, but many fantasy owners are wondering whether the power is legit. In a word: yes. It may have taken a few years, but Altuve's .194 ISO from last season is supported by similar rates in the minors. 20-25 HRs is probably his peak, but with everything else he does, you can't really complain.

• SS Carlos Correa failed to live up to the lofty expectations foisted upon him by drafters last season, but don't overcorrect in 2017. The power is real, and if he can turn some of those ground balls (50% GB rate in 2016) into fly balls, 30+ homers is a real possibility. Look for him to top out at 20 steals, even if he sees a bump from the 12% BB rate he posted.

• What do you make of OF George Springer? His first full major-league season was full of plusses - including a whopping 116 runs scored - but he also stole just nine bases in 19 attempts and will see his RBI chances squelched at the top of the Houston order. He's a 2 1/2-category player right now, but is being drafted as much more than that. Tread carefully.

• Nine straight 20-homer seasons is impressive, but that's about all C Brian McCann has to hang his hat on these days. He's no longer even a .250 hitter, with his contact rate dropping in back-to-back seasons; he's also going to lose playing time to incumbent Evan Gattis. Go with McCann as a decent back-end C1 if you decide to wait on a catcher.

• There might be a temptation to believe that OF Josh Reddick can be reborn with the Astros. But don't believe it: the 30-homer power is long gone, and injuries have limited his ability to put together a 600-AB season. He'll still run a bit, but you can't count on double-digit steals if he doesn't stay on the field enough. Look elsewhere for OF depth.

• There's little question LHP Dallas Keuchel represents one of the top speculative bargain plays of the draft. The real issue is how much draft capital to spend without overpaying. Keuchel should see a boost in his BB/9, GB% and strand rates from a season ago, but it might be a stretch to expect a K/9 north of 8.0. He should be in the SP3 conversation.

• RHP Collin McHugh didn't see as drastic a drop in value as his teammate above, but still had a rough year by his standards - making him a prime value play in 2017. McHugh boosted his K/9 from 7.6 to 8.6 with only a modest increase in BB/9 (2.3 to 2.6), all while throwing first-pitch strikes two-thirds of the time. He's a sensational late-round flier.

• Ken Giles might not be considered an elite closer at your draft, but you should treat him like one. The fireballer lost the role early last season, but reclaimed it late and was a force down the stretch, striking out nearly 42% of the hitters he faced in the second half. That's closer stuff - and if you believe he has learned from his mistakes, nab him as a top-8 option.

Los Angeles Angels

• Yes, I know. OF Mike Trout is a boss. But there are signs that he's getting even better: His BB rate was a career-best 17.0% last season, while his K rate of 20.1% was his lowest since 2013. He might have sacrificed some power (.235 ISO, down from .290 in 2015) for BA (.315, up from .299), but he's still a 30-HR lock. Draft him No. 1 and enjoy.

• "He's old," they said. "Too brittle," they said. And yet, 1B Albert Pujols kept chugging along in 2016, finishing 14th in fantasy value among first basemen while seeing virtually no dropoff in any statistical marker. The power is still there (.189 ISO), the batting average isn't a hindrance (.268) and the Angels will do all they can to keep him healthy.

• Stolen bases are scarce in the American League, so fantasy owners will be praying for good health from OF Cameron Maybin. He had 15 steals with the Detroit Tigers in limited action, but has topped out at 568 plate appearances due to a litany of injuries. A jump in walk rate to 9.2% offers hope, and if he sees 600 PA, a 30-steal season could be in play.

• When it comes to SS Danny Espinosa, it's important not to fall for the shiny counting stats - particularly in shallower leagues. A 22-homer, nine-steal season is a lot less impressive when it has a .209 BA attached to it - and with a .226/.302/.388 slash line for his career, dramatic improvement in that area isn't in the offing. Look elsewhere for MI production.

• OF Kole Calhoun may have seen modest dips in HRs and RBIs last season, but he was a better fantasy play overall. His runs increased by 13 over the previous year, while his BB rate shot up by 3.4% and his K rate fell by more than 6%. The batting average and OBP gains depend on him not selling out to return to the 25-HR plateau.

• RHP Garrett Richards is a big question mark after an elbow injury limited him to just six starts in 2016. While he saw an uptick in K rate in that limited sample, his BB/9 rose for a second straight year while his strand rate fell yet again. It might be best to leave the risk to someone else this year; there's a chance he'll return zero or even negative value.

• Don't be surprised to see RHP Matt Shoemaker at or near the top of the list of American League sleepers. Shoemaker underpitched his FIP last season, victimized in part by a .315 BABIP against and in part by 35% hit rate against in the first half of the season. If he stays healthy, he should post an ERA near 3.50 with a terrific BB/9 rate and WHIP to match.

• You could draft Huston Street for saves, but it wouldn't be a good idea. Sure, he might open the season as the Angels' ninth-inning guy, but already dealing with an injury and coming off a season in which he posted a 4.8 BB/9 and a 5.6 K/9, he's going to be fighting for his job. Here's betting he doesn't have the stuff to keep it.

Oakland Athletics

• You know exactly what you're getting with OF Khris Davis - a shot at 40 home runs thanks to a 40% fly-ball rate and a HR/FB ratio in the 25-27% range, and a batting average that likely won't exceed .250. It's up to you to decide how valuable he is as a three-category player who won't steal many bases - but you can expect a season similar to 2016 if healthy.

• It's all about steals for owners of OF Rajai Davis, who has swiped at least 43 bases in the past three seasons in which he has been given the green light a minimum of 45 percent of the time he reaches first base. But Oakland ranked 26th in the league in both steals and attempts last season, which means Davis might not get as many chances.

• You might have your eye on 3B Ryon Healy as a sleeper - but by the time you get to your draft, there's a good chance everyone in your league will feel the same way. Healy asserted himself well in his first taste of major-league action, posting a .219 ISO and a .352 BABIP - but both should regress in 2016, and a low BB% doesn't bode well for his OBP.

• 3B Trevor Plouffe is a not-so-hot option at the hot corner, and will likely see his value slip even further in Oakland. He isn't enough of a power threat to justify a 20% career K rate, and he walked just 5.5% of the time last season. Don't be lured by the chance of a 20-HR season - he doesn't do anything else well, particularly at a loaded position.

• Add SS Marcus Semien to the list of players who sold out on BA to improve their HR totals. Semien socked a career-best 27 dingers, but saw his average dip by nearly 20 points thanks to an unacceptable .268 BABIP. A 4% lift in FB rate was the catalyst, but if that 14.7% HR/FB rate regresses, Semien will see his fantasy value take a serious hit.

• The Sonny Gray bandwagon is nearly empty, but that presents a great buying opportunity. Gray posted career highs in HR/9 (1.38), BABIP (.319), HR/FB rate (17.5%) and strand rate (63.9%), all so far above his career rates that they can't possibly sustained. He might not be a sub-3.00 ERA option, but he's much better than he showed last season.

• RHP Jharel Cotton is going to be a popular sleeper option, but don't reach too far to get him. Cotton benefited from an unsustainable .198 BABIP in his five major-league starts. helping him post an ERA that was more than 1.6 points lower than his FIP. Still, a K rate closer to his minor-league mark will make him a decent back-end SP in most formats.

• As closer options, go, Ryan Madson might end up looking like fool's gold. He saw a frightening dip in K/9 compared to 2015, while his BB/9 shot up and his first-pitch strike rate fell by a whopping 10%. Oakland has a wealth of talented arms, among them Sean Doolittle and Ryan Dull, so don't be surprised if Madson loses the stopper job at some point.

Seattle Mariners

• A good number of draft participants approached OF Nelson Cruz with caution last year - and they ended up with a shock. Cruz showed no signs of decline en route to his third straight 40 HR season, turning in a slightly lower HR/FB% than 2015 but increasing his walk rate to double digits. He's a top-10 fantasy OF and a great anchor for your offense.

• 2B Robinson Cano's 39-homer season can be attributed to one thing - an unprecedented reliance on the fly ball. Cano's 36% FB rate was 11 points higher than the mark he posted each of his first two seasons in Seattle - and even more impressively, the power surge didn't come at the expense of his BA. Expect some regression, but 30 HR is still in play.

• Have we seen the best 3B Kyle Seager has to offer? It's possible; Seager did make slight inroads in BB rate and HR/FB% last season, bumping his H% back to 30 en route to a career-best BA. But the speed has waned, and at 29, it's fair to wonder if those double-digit steals are ever coming back. He's a solid starting fantasy 3B, but we might have seen his peak.

• Put 2B Jean Segura on the top of your do-not-draft list. His 2016 power display came on the strength of an unsustainable 20% HR/FB rate, and there's little chance he posts a 35% hit rate again. He has never been much for walking, either - and with the Mariners one of the most SB-averse teams in baseball, Segura is in for major regression.

• 1B/3B Danny Valencia wasn't quite able to duplicate his surprising 2015 season, but it was still a solid encore. His .257 xBA - 30 points lower than his actual average - suggests a little bat luck, but the power stroke remained strong; he should provide 15 HRs and a .275 average if he can scratch out 500 ABs, making him a terrific AL-only sleeper option.

• It's difficult to see any optimism in the career trajectory of RHP Felix Hernandez, who has become an average starter at best. His K/9 rate has plummeted from 9.5 in 2014 to just 7.2 last season, while his BB/9 has skyrocketed from 1.8 to 3.8 over that same span. He's throwing fewer first-pitch strikes, too. Don't be the one to reach on King Felix.

• The top pitcher in the Seattle rotation might be a guy who wasn't even on the big club when 2016 began. LHP James Paxton earned a promotion in June and was terrific, particularly in a second-half surge that saw his BB/9 rate shrink to 1.3 while his K/9 rate remained above 8.0. He's also great at inducing grounders (48% GB rate). He's a strong sleeper pick.

• Look past the 14% HR/FB rate he had in the second half of the season, and there's a lot to like about Edwin Diaz's case as an elite closer. For starters, there's the 14.6 K/9 he posted in the second half. Or maybe you prefer the 20% swinging strike rate he put up en route to 18 saves. With Seattle looking improved, Diaz should see a boatload of save chances.

Texas Rangers

• There's a lot to like about 2B Rougned Odor from a fantasy perspective. His 33-homer breakout of 2016 was fueled by an sustainable increase in his HR/FB% (from 12 to 17), and came without much of a drop in BA. On the other hand, that 3% walk rate kept his OBP under .300 - and history suggests that things won't get much better in that regard.

• So much for a gradual decline. 3B Adrian Beltre's power stroke came back in a big way in 2016, as he vaulted his HR/FB% from 10 to 15 while maintaining an elite contact rate and crushing left-handers (1.004 OPS). A four-year xBA ranging between .286 and .288 means a high BA is a lock, and he still has the muscle to post a 25-HR, 90-RBI campaign.

• Optimism gave way to disappointment for owners of OF Nomar Mazara, who watched the rookie belt 11 home runs while posting a .287 average in the first half. Nine second-half homers were nice, but that .239 BA - along with a significant drop in H% and LD% - suggest there might be more work to do in the minors. Don't reach too high for him.

• Owners are exercising caution with OF Carlos Gomez, and with good reason: He burned a lot of fantasy hopes with a dismal showing in Houston before catching fire in limited action with the Rangers. A rebound in contact rate back to the mid-70s (66 last season) would do wonders for him, as he still has 20-HR pop with 20-SB potential.

• C Jonathan Lucroy presents a dilemma for drafters. There's no debating his offensive ability - and while last year's 16% HR/FB rate doubled his previous year's total, it's at least reasonable to expect him to sustain it playing half his games in Arlington. But for where you would need to commit to him on draft day, there's a good chance he won't return value.

• It can be tough to shut out the noise when it comes to assessing pitcher performance, but drafters need to do just that with RHP Yu Darvish. Sure, he struggled at times in his return from Tommy John surgery, but a second-half K/9 of 11.8 should assuage the fears of most. He isn't a top-10 SP right now, but he definitely belongs in the next tier.

• The returns on LHP Cole Hamels' first full season in Texas were better than a lot of people expected. The climbing BB/9 (3.45) is cause for concern, but he's still a 200-inning horse with a K/9 near 9.0 and a strand rate around 80%. Draft him as your SP2, and you won't give him another thought the rest of the season - and that's a good thing.

• Closer Sam Dyson doesn't have the profile of a typical ninth-inning guy, toting a modest K/9 of 7.0 while relying heavily on ground balls (65 GB% in 2016). He greatly outpitched his FIP last season, and with the Rangers expected to challenge for the division title, manager Jeff Banister won't hesitate to turn to Matt Bush, Keone Kela or someone else if Dyson slips.