Breaking down the top kicker weeks - how did they happen?
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While not included in all daily fantasy formats, the dreaded kicker position can often come into play and decide results. Last season, an average of 7.47 kickers every week scored at least 10 fantasy points. Five times, at least five kickers accomplished this (marginal) feat.
When streaming kickers in season-long leagues, the following criteria are often used:
- Game played in a dome
- High-powered offense
- Opponent with a good red-zone defense
Here's a look at last season's top weekly kicker performances. Included are how many kickers scored at least 10 fantasy points in the given week, the highest fantasy-point total of the week, and the kicker who did so:
| Week | Min. 10 Pts | Highest | Name |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 14 | Matt Bryant/Josh Brown |
| 2 | 7 | 16 | Stephen Gostkowski |
| 3 | 4 | 15 | Stephen Gostkowski |
| 4 | 10 | 21 | Cairo Santos |
| 5 | 6 | 15 | Caleb Sturgis |
| 6 | 10 | 14 | Brandon McManus |
| 7 | 8 | 16 | Blair Walsh |
| 8 | 11 | 17 | Justin Tucker |
| 9 | 7 | 14 | Josh Brown |
| 10 | 9 | 17 | Cairo Santos/Dustin Hopkins |
| 11 | 6 | 16 | Mason Crosby |
| 12 | 5 | 15 | Graham Gano |
| 13 | 7 | 13 | Mike Nugent/Chris Boswell/Dan Bailey/Shayne Graham |
| 14 | 6 | 15 | Chris Boswell |
| 15 | 10 | 15 | Stephen Gostkowski |
| 16 | 4 | 19 | Blair Walsh |
| 17 | 10 | 13 | Phil Dawson |
Surprisingly, just four of the top-21 fantasy performances (including ties) came in a domed stadium. Kickers can be helped under certain conditions in outdoor games. Strong winds can help aid the length of kicks for half the game, while wet conditions can make it more difficult for rushing and passing attacks, leading coaches to opt to play it safe and kick more field goals.
As a general rule, controlled settings in domes help mitigate risk but playing it safe is a strategy much better suited for season-long leagues and daily fantasy cash games than in GPPs.
Leading the way was New England Patriots PK Gostkowski with three position-leading performances. Kansas City Chiefs PK Santos, Pittsburgh Steelers PK Boswell, New York Giants PK Brown, and Minnesota Vikings PK Walsh each led the position twice.
All of these teams except the Vikings ranked among the 10 highest-scoring clubs last year. The Vikings ranked 16th.
| Kicker | Opponent | RZ Defense Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Gostkowski | at BUF | 23 |
| Gostkowski | vs. JAC | 25 |
| Gostkowski | vs. TEN | 27 |
| Santos | at CIN | 4 |
| Santos | at DEN | 16 |
| Boswell | vs. IND | 28 |
| Boswell | at CIN | 4 |
| Brown | at DAL | 8 |
| Brown | at TB | 30 |
| Walsh | at DET | 29 |
| Walsh | vs. NYG | 12 |
Red-zone defense was not a strong factor, with five top performances coming against a team in the top half of the league in opponent red-zone-scoring percentage. Six top performances were against teams ranking in the bottom half of the league.
More importantly, nine of the 11 performances were in games won by the kicker's team, with an average margin of victory of 14.7 points. The average point total from these games was 55.6.
The most prominent factor in predicting kicker performance is to target the favored team in games with the highest projected point total. While this strategy has often been applied to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs, daily formats which include kickers offer one more way to gain access to the top offenses.
Owners should be targeting the cheapest kicker in one of these matchups. While Gostkowski has proven pedigree, Boswell wasn't on an NFL roster to begin the 2015 season, and he still managed to have several highly productive weeks, thanks solely to the overall quality of the Steelers' offense.