Which Patriots will see a boost in fantasy value without Tom Brady?
With the news coming out Friday that Patriots QB Tom Brady will accept his four-game "Deflategate" suspension, it's official that backup Jimmy Garoppolo will start the first quarter of the 2016 season (at Arizona, vs. Miami, vs. Houston and vs. Buffalo).
While TE Rob Gronkowski's stock is untouchable, how will the other fantasy-relevant members of the offense be impacted by the change under center? All average draft positions (ADPs) courtesy of FantasyPros.
RB LeGarrette Blount (ADP of 43 at his position)
The obvious candidate to see increased usage with an inexperienced quarterback would be a running back who can rack up yards on the ground and milk the clock. While the Patriots ranked 25th in rushing attempts per game last season and 30th in total rushing yards, Blount was far and away the team leader in attempts per game (13.8) and yards (703), while crossing the goal line seven times.
Blount missed four games in total and twice more received three or fewer carries in a single week, but he typically received enough of a workload to produce a respectable stat line. He didn't have overwhelming success in four total games against the Bills, Dolphins and Texans last season, but his ADP should see a modest rise from its current level due to the expected short-term increase in workload.
A rise to 35th or so among running backs should be expected, especially since his current placement has him behind a free agent (Arian Foster), a player opening the season on a four-game suspension (Karlos Williams) and numerous projected backups.
RB Dion Lewis (ADP of 23 at his position)
The pass-catching complement to a more traditional runner in Blount, Lewis exceeded eight carries only once in a game, a 15-attempt outing in the season opener in which Blount was unavailable due to a suspension.
Lewis himself only played in seven games before hitting the injured reserve with a knee injury, but he compiled a 36-388-2 receiving line while also averaging a healthy 4.78 yards per carry.
He can be expected to be a safety blanket of sorts for Garoppolo, but he's still in a platoon situation with Blount, so his workload can only increase so much. His ADP may rise a few spots, possibly moving Lewis ahead of underwhelming starters such as Jeremy Hill and Ryan Mathews, but it was already fairly well-established to begin with.
WR Julian Edelman (ADP of 19 at his position)
If any player is hurt most by Brady's absence, it's likely Edelman, who has made the most of being the slot receiver in a pass-heavy attack. Perhaps it's just a coincidence, but all four of Edelman's most productive games last season in terms of yards receiving came in the opening four contests.
Edelman's no stranger to injuries as well - he's played a full 16-game season just once in his seven-year career, and he missed seven games in 2015. Still, while his ADP may drop a few spots, possibly behind the likes of Randall Cobb and Doug Baldwin, he won't see a precipitous decline. After all, he's being drafted among receivers who face either an uncertain QB situation or who have a lot of competition for catches, so there's some risk all around.