Rob Gronkowski is not worth a top-15 pick

New England Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski has been a late first- or early second-round pick since 2012. A sophomore season of 1,327 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns from the tight end position in 2011 justified the rise up the overall rankings. Ever since, his spot as the best tight end available has gone unquestioned, until now.

Though Gronk's on-field abilities are still unmatched, the value he provides in the fantasy world took a downturn in 2015. Despite providing 1,176 yards and 11 touchdowns, and still finishing as the top fantasy tight end by season's end, Gronk's separation between his fellow position players dropped significantly.

Unless Gronkowski is able to maintain a distinct advantage over the rest of the tight end crop, the decision to take him in the first or second round and 30 or so picks ahead of the next highest-selected tight end seems questionable. Finishing as the top tight end simply isn't good enough; Gronk has to be far-and-away the No. 1 option at his position.

Last year, four tight ends finished with 1,000 yards receiving for the first time in NFL history. Five finished with at least 150 standard fantasy points, also a first in fantasy football history. This fact isn't outlandish in today's NFL considering the tight end position continues to become more of an an over-sized receiver than anything else.

Looking at last year's fantasy totals in standard formats, Gronkowski only outscored second-place finisher Gary Barnidge by 26 points, but more telling than that, Gronk only topped the fifth-highest tight end by 34 points.

A 2014 and 2015 comparison of value-based drafting (VBD) -- a player's fantasy points minus the fantasy points of the baseline player, where the baseline player is the 12th-ranked TE -- highlights Gronk's drop in positional dominance.

The difference between first and fifth was only 33 points, yet because Gronkowski was selected 30-50 picks earlier than his counterparts, he failed to deliver on his desired (and required) value.

Ultimately, it's not a decline in Gronk's performance or lack of ability deflating his value; it's simply that other tight ends are starting to nip at his heels.

Based off of last year's numbers, it would seem at least five teams in all fantasy leagues are sure to land themselves a top-flight TE1 for 2016. Outside of Gronkowski, players like Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Barnidge, Delanie Walker, Tyler Eifert, and Travis Kelce are all capable options, and each can be had without sacrificing a WR1 or RB1.

The Loss of Brady

With Tom Brady's four-game suspension almost certain to be upheld, the New England offense will be in foreign territory for the opening quarter of its season. Outside of a lost 2008 season, Brady has started every game since 2002. As a result, Brady has also started all 80 of Gronkowski's career NFL games.

Considering Gronkowski and backup Jimmy Garoppolo have never had the opportunity to truly work together for an entire game, concerns about Gronkowski's early-season production are strengthened even further. Risk in a first-round pick is supposed to be minimal, and starting the season with four Garoppolo-led games isn't going to put fantasy owners' minds at ease.

Strength of Schedule

To make things slightly tougher on Gronk and Garoppolo, the New England schedule won't do them many favors.

For New England's first four games, three of their four opponents ranked inside the top-13 in terms of limiting points surrendered to the tight end position, with Arizona ranking 19th.

Unfortunately, things get worse looking at the overall schedule. New England's schedule gives them the fifth-worst slate in terms of fantasy tight end defense. In the second half of the season, the Pats also line up with the Jets twice and face both the Seahawks and Broncos.

With four Garoppolo games to start, a bye week in Week 9, and a few difficult matchups in the second half, Gronkowski's value falls into greater jeopardy.