Targeting TEs on teams with weak receiving corps
As the NFL develops into a passing league, the effect isn't being felt solely at the wide receiver position. New England Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski continues to represent the best and most reliable option at his position, but the group behind him has been closing the gap.
Here's a look at the development of top-12 fantasy tight end performances in season-long leagues over the past six years:
| Year | Highest | Lowest | Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 184 | 89 | 129.9 |
| 2014 | 184 | 94 | 126.6 |
| 2013 | 218 | 93 | 131.4 |
| 2012 | 152 | 96 | 119.1 |
| 2011 | 241 | 98 | 134.9 |
| 2010 | 154 | 96 | 114.0 |
While the 2011 season, led by Gronkowski, former teammate Aaron Hernandez and then New Orleans Saints TE Jimmy Graham, is an uncanny spike in the data, a growing trend can be seen.
Following the example of Gronkowski, a lot of the top tight end performances have come from those on teams where they were the No. 1 target in the passing game. Unlike Gronk and the Patriots, this is often a result of a subpar team offense, with the tight end's reception volume more attributed to a lack of talent at receiver and/or quarterback than the TE's personal dominance.
Here's a look at the top 10 tight ends from 2015:
| PLAYER | TEAM | YARDS | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | 1 176 | 11 |
| Jordan Reed | WAS | 960 | 11 |
| Gary Barnidge | CLE | 1 043 | 9 |
| Greg Olsen | CAR | 1 104 | 7 |
| Delanie Walker | TEN | 1 088 | 6 |
| Tyler Eifert | CIN | 615 | 13 |
| Benjamin Watson | NO | 825 | 6 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 875 | 5 |
| Richard Rodgers | GB | 510 | 8 |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 853 | 2 |
Thirteen tight ends registered at least one position-leading fantasy week, with Reed leading the way with four. Olsen was the lone other tight end to post more than TE1 week.
Four of the top six tight ends led their respective teams in both receiving yards and touchdowns, while Olsen led the Panthers in yards and Eifert led the Bengals in touchdowns. Among the remaining four, Rodgers shared the Packers' lead in receiving touchdowns.
Of the 10 tight ends, only Olsen's Panthers, Eifert's Bengals and Kelce's Chiefs rushed the ball on at least 44 percent of their offensive plays. Only the Panthers rushed on over 50 percent of their plays. Detroit Lions TE Eric Ebron finished as the TE13 for the season, with the Lions rushing on just 35.90 percent of their plays, the lowest rate in the NFL.
Of the remaining four pass-heaviest teams in the league last season, only Miami Dolphins TE Jordan Cameron played all 16 games and held the title of his team's No. 1 tight end for the full campaign.
An improved Dolphins offense under new head coach Adam Gase should lead to a better season for Cameron, if he can stay healthy for a second consecutive year. Jacksonville Jaguars TE Julius Thomas also seems to be in line for an excellent season if he plays all 16 games. The Jaguars ranked third in pass-play percentage a year ago.
San Diego Chargers TE Antonio Gates is also in line for a big season, as he re-assumes a clear No. 1 job with former teammate Ladarius Green having departed for the Pittsburgh Steelers in free agency.
Cameron (19), Thomas (11) and Gates (13) are all being selected outside of the top-10 at their position, according to FantasyPros' ADP values.