Fantasy Football Faceoff: Tom Brady vs. Blake Bortles

Here's a look at whether fantasy football owners would be better off selecting New England Patriots QB Tom Brady or Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles in 2016 drafts:

2015 Stats

The Case for Tom Brady

With Peyton Manning's retirement, Brady has become the elder statesman among NFL QBs; he's a year older than Saints QB Drew Brees. But he hasn't slowed down. He may not have the rocket arm, but he has thrown for fewer than 4,000 yards just once since his injury-shortened 2008 campaign. The only problem is, he can't wriggle out of the four-game "Deflategate" ban.

Brady will not throw many interceptions; he has tossed only 16 picks over his last 32 games, and he's almost a lock for 30-plus TDs over the course of a full season. He has the best tight end in the game in Rob Gronkowski, who happens to be a TD-machine. Brady is consistency personified.

With WR Julian Edelman presumably healthy and RB Dion Lewis poised to cement his role as the primary pass-catching back, Brady has more established weapons than he has had in years. He is the perfect mid-round pick for those who elected to pass on Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton or even the aforementioned Brees.

Best-Case Scenario: Brady plays 12 games and works a pace that would set a single-season TD record for a tight end, breaking his own record of 17 TD passes to Gronk in 2011. He throws minimal picks and provides the best value at the position relative to his ADP. His ceiling is the best in the game.

Worst-Case Scenario: Brady doesn't return from the four-game suspension fully rested and instead acts his age. Gronk shows he's human, Edelman goes down with another serious injury and the replacements don't sparkle with Belichick magic. Brady has his worst statistical season and derails the fantasy teams that drafted him in spite of his status at the beginning of the season.

The Case for Blake Bortles

Bortles had a breakout campaign in 2015. He started every game and threw at least two TD passes in 11 of them. He eclipsed four TDs in three of those games. While the 18 INTs are a concern - Brady has never thrown that many - the damage was mitigated by the 35 TDs. Brady never reached 30 TD passes in a season until he threw 50 in 2007, his seventh season.

Bortles also has the added benefit of being able to run. He ran 52 times for 310 yards, far outperforming Brady in this area. While it was a decrease from the year before, it was still good for sixth among QBs in rushing yards. He may not be Newton, but he's no slouch, either.

More impressive is the still-improving tandem of the Allens (Robinson & Hurns) at WR. Robinson is going late in the first round or early in the second in most drafts and is poised to be Bortles' top target. Add in TE Julius Thomas and RB acquisition Chris Ivory to alleviate some pressure, and this whole offense is more dynamic than it was in 2015. Bortles could be a steal at his ADP.

Best-Case Scenario: The TDs rise even further as Robinson becomes a superstar WR and the INTs go down as the whole offense becomes more unpredictable. He throws in a few more rushing TDs and finishes as a top-3 fantasy option at QB.

Worst-Case Scenario: The INTs don't go down as Bortles makes a ton of bonehead decisions and Robinson doesn't develop into the elite receiver he's expected to become. The running game falters and forces Bortles to throw more often into coverage and he takes a big step backward in his fantasy valuation.

Verdict

Brady is a model of stability, and Gronkowski is as imposing a target as you'll find. He'll also be 39 years old when the season begins and few quarterbacks age this gracefully.

Gronk notwithstanding, Bortles has a better assortment of weapons, and both Robinson and Hurns should take steps forward. An improved offensive line should protect Bortles, who was sacked a league-high 51 times in 2015. Alleviating this pressure should help reduce the interceptions and improve his overall efficiency. This could be his true breakout.