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Buy, Sell or Hold: Evaluating Week 1 Performances

Denny Medley / USA TODAY Sports / Reuters

Buy

SP Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets

Get in on Syndergaard while there's still a chance, as his price will only rise throughout the season. He pitched six complete innings in his first start of the year, striking out nine, walking one and allowing just three hits. It was against the defending World Series Champions.

His next start is scheduled for Tuesday, April 12, against the Miami Marlins. He'll follow that with likely starts against the Cleveland Indians and Atlanta Braves. With three favorable matchups he'll approach 10 strikeouts each time out, raising his price dramatically. A large portion of his starts will come against the Marlins, Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.

Each of those teams is projected to finish near the bottom of the league at season's end. Syndergaard will finish among the league leaders in strikeouts if he stays healthy, and he could encroach on the perennial Cy Young finalists. He's worth almost any price, and is invaluable in keeper leagues.

OF Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

Buxton's stat line to start the season has been far from impressive, as he's just 2-for-14, with no walks and nine strikeouts. Despite the woeful strikeout figures and the lack of walks, he has improved his plate discipline and ranks among the Twins' leaders in pitches faced this season.

He - and fantasy owners - are also suffering by the fact he's buried at the bottom of Minnesota's lineup. Hitting ninth in the order takes away from his stolen base potential and his opportunities to both drive in and score runs.

Buxton is available on waivers in nearly 50% of standard, mixed fantasy leagues. He needs to be picked up and stashed wherever he's available, in preparation for his breakout and/or move up the batting order. He could be had in a trade for a backup hitter who has been able to muster a few hits to begin the season, but who lacks Buxton's upside.

Sell

OF Steven Souza Jr., Tampa Bay Rays

Souza Jr. entered the 2015 season - his first with the Rays - with the potential for a 20-home run, 20-stolen base season. He finished with 16 home runs and 12 steals in 110 games, but he struggled to a .225 batting average and a mediocre .318 on-base percentage. He struck out in a staggering 33.8% of his plate appearances.

He still has the speed and power tools, as seen in his three home runs already this season. Still, he hasn't yet drawn a walk and has struck out six times. Any owner who has claimed him off the waiver wire should be trying to flip him to a league-mate desperate for power in exchange for an asset with a higher floor.

SP Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners

Iwakuma made it through his first start of the season - against a good Texas Rangers team - with just two earned runs allowed through five innings. He struck out five, but walked three and allowed six hits, en route a no decision. There's also the whole thing about the failed physical with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

He's at constant risk of injury, with a high likelihood of it being rather significant. Even if he stays healthy he's set to turn 35 years old and is in the twilight of his career. The Mariners were lucky to re-sign him at a relative bargain and fantasy owners were able to draft him later than usual as well.

Looking past the decent strikeout numbers and the quality ERA, those owners should flip him while they still can.

Hold

SS Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies

There are three types of Story owners in standard, mixed leagues:

  • Those who took him early as their primary shortstop.
  • Those who drafted him with a late-round lottery ticket.

For the first group: there has been little to no update on Reyes' status to this point of the season. Regardless of the final ruling on his status for 2016, Story has earned himself regular playing time for the remainder of the season. The Rockies will be forced to find a way to get his bat into the lineup on a regular basis, meaning he will maintain his fantasy relevance.

For the second group: well, you likely made a mistake on draft day, but it's turned out quite well. You're basically stuck with Story one way or another, and may as well lean back and enjoy the ride. Just be prepared for the upcoming plateau and subsequent decline in production.

The third group has the most to consider. Regardless of who their primary shortstop may have been, Story has been the top producer. In this case these owners may want to weight offers for Story, but don't underestimate the weight of name value. An under-producing veteran may still fetch a much better return than an upstart rookie at this point of the season.

1B/3B Tyler White, Houston Astros

Consider White the poor man's Story. He was acquired in a similar fashion, as either a late-round flier or a waiver-wire add. He's started his major league career by hitting for a .692 average, with two home runs and seven RBIs.

His average will decline, but likely not as much as it may seem. He's replicating the same hitting tools he demonstrated through each level of the minor leagues, with the exception of added power. He hits in a very hitter-friendly ballpark in Houston, and he's been hitting relatively high in one of the American League's top lineups.

He's flying under the radar with Story having overshadowed him thus far. Even with the power being a likely mirage, his high average will allow for plenty of runs and RBIs while within that lineup. Keep him rostered.

Owners who can't find regular playing time for him should allow his stock to rise a little more before looking for a trade.

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