Garbage Time: Lowered Expectations
Welcome to Garbage Time, theScore's aptly-titled NBA roundtable series, featuring contributions from Joseph Casciaro, William Lou, Blake Murphy, Chris Toman and Joe Wolfond.
In our first rotation below, Casciaro, Murphy and Wolfond write about the 2014-15 outlook for the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Los Angeles Lakers
Wolfond: There’s understandably been a lot of romanticism surrounding Kobe Bryant's return; he has an aura about him that makes you believe he can buck every trend applicable to a 36-year-old entering his 19th NBA season on the heels of two major surgeries. Truther or hater, every basketball fan on the planet is at least curious to see what Kobe’s still capable of. But let’s face facts: this team is going to stink regardless. It's a rickety vehicle made of mismatched parts, with zero defense to speak of, a patchwork front line, a 40-year-old starting point guard, and a coach who's developed an inexplicable allergy to the three-point line. Kobe’s had a stunning career, but his exit is shaping up to be an unceremonious one.
Casciaro: Lakers fans will tell you the team should expect to compete for a playoff spot, but the reality is this team remains one of the four or five worst in the unforgiving Western Conference. A good season would see Kobe Bryant stay healthy and enjoy an inspiring return (and pass Michael Jordan for third on the all-time scoring list), Julius Randle emerge as an integral part of the franchise's future and the team not forfeit a high draft pick to the Phoenix Suns, who will get L.A.'s pick (as part of the Steve Nash trade) as long as it isn't in the top five.
Murphy: In the absence of a major acquisition, the Lakers quietly had a smart offseason, limiting long-term exposure and upgrading at the margins in a handful of spots. Unfortunately for Kobe and the forum blue and gold faithful, this roster still reads as one of the worst in basketball. The perimeter rotation is painfully thin without Swaggy P, Byron Scott has some asinine beliefs about offense, and there may not be a single league-average defender on the team. The league's more interesting when the Lakers are good, but they aren't, and they'll finish 14th in the West.
Miami Heat
Murphy: The Heat will remain competitive and interesting enough to keep watching, but they're now a low-end team in the East. Chris Bosh is underrated and should be able to function as a No. 1 option, but Dwyane Wade's ability to operate as the primary pick-and-roll weapon is unclear, and despite a few additions to the bench in Danny Granger, Shabazz Napier and Josh McRoberts, the team remains woefully thin. They have the talent to make the playoffs, but home court is a long shot, as is winning a playoff series.
Wolfond: Given what they lost this offseason and how quickly things could have spiraled, Miami did a sound job of keeping their ship afloat. Obviously they weren’t replacing LeBron, but by inking Luol Deng (a stout wing defender and an absolute workhorse) and Josh McRoberts (one of the league’s best passing bigs), the Heat may have found a way to roughly approximate his skillset in the aggregate. That’s on top of keeping Wade in the fold, and locking up Bosh long-term when popular perception had him bolting for Houston. That said, this team is clearly no longer in the title conversation. They were top-heavy last year and they’ll be top-heavy this year - only without LeBron around to single-handedly paper over their deficiencies. Wade’s health is the biggest question mark. If he can mimic last year’s production (22.0 PER) while playing close to a full slate, the Heat should challenge for a top-four seed in the East. If not, they could struggle to stay in the playoff picture.
Casciaro: You can't lose the best player alive without taking a significant step backwards. The Heat are out of the championship conversation for the first time in five years, but this is still a talented veteran team. However, if Wade and Luol Deng can't play at least 65 games each, or if the thin bench proves as bad as it could be, Miami could find itself fighting for one of the last Eastern Conference playoff spots. It is the East, though, and if Derrick Rose isn't something close to prime Rose, the second seed is wide open. The Bosh-led Heat should slot in somewhere between third and sixth, and a second-round appearance is a reasonable expectation.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Casciaro: Losing Kevin Durant for a quarter of the season could be the difference between the Thunder having home-court advantage or not against the San Antonio Spurs or Los Angeles Clippers in the second round of the playoffs. It even gives the Portland Trail Blazers (and possibly the Denver Nuggets) an outside chance at stealing the Northwest Division crown. But OKC's expectations will remain the same: to compete for a championship. If they can stay afloat without KD, they'll have one of the best teams in the league together for three quarters of the season. As long as they're healthy in the playoffs, a big if, this remains a team that can win a title.
Murphy: Big picture, the Thunder will be fine. Durant may miss about 20 games, but that should only cost the team two or three wins given its relatively easy schedule through the first week of December. While three wins is enough to knock OKC from the presumed No. 1 seed and put it in the precarious position of playing two road series in the playoffs, that only downgrades its title hopes by a small margin. The Thunder remain a top-three team in the West, and a top-five team in the NBA.
Wolfond: The impending Durant-less stretch will test the Thunder and probably knock them out of top-two contention in the conference. That isn’t meaningless (even with homecourt, they were closer to falling to the Clippers in last year’s West semis than most remember), but a healthy Thunder squad is still as loaded and dangerous as any team in the league. Reggie Jackson looks primed to bust out, Serge Ibaka is a good bet to be a first-time All-Star and Russell Westbrook should be in the MVP mix. Provided none of those three follows Durant to the infirmary, the Thunder’s odds of emerging from the West are on a level with those of the Clippers and Spurs.