Mavericks' Carlisle: Nowitzki will finish top 5 in all-time scoring

Dallas Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle is one of three things: very optimistic about Dirk Nowitzki's performance over the next three seasons, confident Nowitzki will keep playing beyond 2017, or loose with his math.

Those are the possible explanations for Carlisle's claim Thursday that his German sharpshooter will finish his career as one of the top-five scorers in NBA history. It's not outlandish, considering Nowitzki and his unrivaled fade-away rank 10th on the scoring list to open the season, but cracking the top five will be an uphill climb.

Here is how the all-time leaderboard shakes down ahead of the 2014-15 campaign:

To catch Chamberlain at No. 5, Nowitzki needs to score 4,633 more points. Here's how long it would take using a couple of different scoring assumptions:

• 2013-14 scoring average of 21.7: 213 games
• 2011-14 scoring average of 20.5: 226 games
• Scoring average of 20.0 (owner Mark Cuban has suggested nobody on the team will average even that number): 232 games
• Scoring average of 18.9: 246 games (exactly three seasons)
• Scoring average of 17.8 (Tim Duncan's age-36 average): 260 games

Based on those numbers, Nowitzki needs to remain very effective and incredibly durable to catch Chamberlain in the next three seasons. At age 36, it's unclear if either of those assumptions are fair, though it's certainly tough to bet against a player who somehow improved at age 35. 

Sixth place on the list, at least, seems relatively assured.

Also of note on the all-time scoring list entering the season are several active players with a chance to improve their historical standing: