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Will the Suns turn the series around at home?

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The first round of the NBA players has had everything fans could want, including chaotic finishes, buzzer-beaters, high intensity, and simmering tension.

There are another three Game 3s on Friday. Here are our four best bets for the action.

Timberwolves @ Suns (-4.5, O/U 207.5)

It's a trendy pick to take the team down 2-0 when it returns home if the two squads are evenly matched. The Sixers and Magic covered their spread at home after trailing 2-0 in the series. The Lakers didn't, but the Nuggets are far superior and that series was over before it started given how Denver has dominated Los Angeles in recent history.

Friday's contest between the Timberwolves and Suns will follow the trend, as the desperate Suns earn a win at home.

Role players typically perform better at home in the playoffs, and the T-Wolves' role players carried them to a Game 2 win. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker have been average through two games. Minnesota's defensive presence has contributed to that, but there will be more urgency from those two stars Friday.

Phoenix lacks depth and Grayson Allen is questionable for Friday's game, but the Suns' stars will carry it across the finish line.

Pick: Suns -4.5

Pascal Siakam: Under 27.5 points

Siakam has been unstoppable for the Pacers. He's second in playoff points, averaging 36.5 through two games. He's exposed the Bucks' leaky defense without Giannis Antetokounmpo and dominated matchups against the slow-footed Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Khris Middleton.

But don't expect this sustained production. The Bucks will adjust defensively by sending double teams and being more physical with the slender Siakam.

Milwaukee has limited Tyrese Haliburton but can't win the series if it lets Siakam's scoring splurge continue. Siakam will take a step back in Game 3 with added defensive pressure.

Odds: -115

Daniel Gafford: Under 6.5 points

This isn't Gafford's series. He's been a stellar midseason addition to the Mavericks, but sometimes certain playoff matchups dictate a player's postseason minutes.

The Mavs have been remarkably worse with Gafford on the floor. Dallas is getting outscored by 29.3 points per 100 possessions with Gafford on the court in the playoffs but is outscoring opponents by 2.8 points per 100 possessions when he's on the bench. He can't play in this series, which has led to a reduction in minutes. Gafford played just 14 minutes in Game 1 and nine minutes in Game 2. He's recorded three total points through two contests.

The Mavs' best lineup against the Clippers is a small lineup with Maxi Kleber at center. Fewer minutes for Gafford means fewer scoring opportunities.

Odds: -130

Clippers @ Mavericks (-4.5, O/U 212.5)

The Mavs had the NBA's best defensive rating over the final 15 regular-season games. That defensive intensity has carried over to the playoffs, as they held the Clippers to 93 points in Game 2.

But the Clippers were reintegrating Kawhi Leonard into the lineup, which seemingly messed up his and his teammates' rhythm. The Clippers' offense should regain form in Leonard's second game back.

L.A.'s defense, which struggled down the season's stretch, has also restricted the Mavs by consistently doubling Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and forcing Dallas' supporting cast to make shots.

Doncic has been unusually inefficient and is missing shots he typically makes. I wouldn't expect that to last, especially as the Mavs return home.

With the Clippers at full health and Doncic's shotmaking potentially opening up Dallas' offense, Game 3 could feature an offensive explosion after two defense-oriented matchups.

Pick: Over 212.5

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.

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