Can the Spurs beat Serge Ibaka and the Thunder?

With the second-seeded Thunder storming back from an 0-2 hole against the top-seeded Spurs in the Western Conference Final, many are flashing back to 2012, when Oklahoma City rallied for four straight wins to eliminate San Antonio and set up a Finals matchup with the Heat.

Less than a week ago, we were talking about how easy the Spurs were making things look, and how improbable a Thunder comeback was without Serge Ibaka. Now we're wondering - with reason - if the Spurs can beat a fully healthy Thunder squad at all, and if they're on the cusp of another 2012-like collapse.

The Spurs have lost nine straight games in OKC, but with home court advantage yet to shift in the series, they don't actually need to win a road game to win the West. Of course, they've also now lost seven straight games to the Thunder when Ibaka is in the lineup, and as we highlighted a couple of days ago, that's the real story here.

After Game 3, we focused on how drastic the differences in the general performance numbers of the Spurs are when Ibaka is on the floor versus off, but why is that so?

It all comes down to the perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate's ability to not only protect the rim and the paint with his blocks, but to alter shots and discourage/destroy Spurs drives.

San Antonio's offensive juggernaut lives off of movement and spacing, as we all know, but the catalyst is Tony Parker's ability to get into the paint and break down defenses from there. Parker can punish teams by dropping tear drops and floaters on them all night or by getting to the heart of the defense and then finding open shooters.

With Ibaka's paint protection, however, Parker especially is taken out of his game and away from his strengths. He's not as effective in getting to that prime probing location on the floor, and therefore has a much more difficult time breaking down the Thunder defense. And without Parker prodding and probing, the Spurs' offense is a shell of its usual self, as evidenced by the fact that they've scored less than 100 points per 100 possessions over a two-game sample - Games 3 and 4 - for the first time since November.

In addition to the more basic on/off numbers we went over after Game 3, another indicator of Ibaka's impact on the series is the Spurs' shot quality. With Ibaka on the bench in the West Final, over 52 percent of San Antonio's field goal attempts are coming within nine feet, according to NBA.com. But with Ibaka on the court, that number drops to just over 42 percent.

We may be two years removed from that oft-referenced 2012 West Final, the Spurs are certainly capable of winning a couple of home games, and as the Heat/Nets series reminded us, regular season results don't necessarily dictate postseason results. But in addition to the Thunder sweeping their four-game regular season series with San Antonio, they've also taken care of the Spurs rather handily with Ibaka in the lineup just this week, and the Spurs haven't beaten a Thunder team featuring Ibaka since March of last year.

Plus we haven't even mentioned the fact that through four games, Russell Westbrook has been the best player in this series.

Ibaka's presence takes something significant away from the Spurs' machine-like offense, while he, Westbrook and Kevin Durant provide more than enough offense of their own. If Gregg Popovich's team can't figure out a way to counter that over the next few days, the references and similarities to 2012 will only grow.