Why the Nuggets may be alright after all
Between Stephen Curry’s demolition of them last Spring, the drama surrounding George Karl, Masai Ujiri and Andre Iguodala all moving on and now their first trip to the Lottery in 11 years, it certainly feels as though the Nuggets have imploded into an era of darkness.
But Thursday night’s victory over the very Warriors that eliminated them after a 58-win season a year ago – thanks to a Kenneth Faried game winner with a half-second remaining and a career game from Timofey Mozgov - reminded us that Denver is far from some lost, desolate franchise.
The Nuggets have been among the most inconsistent teams this season, with two winning streaks of five-plus games and three losing streaks of five-plus included in their 35-44 campaign to date, and that inconsistency lends to the perception of disorganization. But this is also one of the hardest hit teams when it comes to injuries in 2013-14, as the Nuggets have dealt with blows to almost all of their key contributors.
Ty Lawson has missed 17 games, Wilson Chandler has missed 20, Nate Robinson has missed 35, Darrell Arthur has missed 13, Danilo Gallinari has yet to play since tearing his ACL over a year ago and JaVale McGee has played just five games this season.
That’s tough to deal with for a rookie head coach in an unforgiving Western Conference. And when you consider the 35 wins despite all of that missing talent, the emergence of Mozgov, the re-emergence of Faried, the forced development of Evan Fournier and Quincy Miller, and the ever present advantage of the Denver altitude, you start to remember that this is still a team with potential.
Mozgov and Faried, especially, the stars of Thursday night at Oracle, are reason enough for optimism.
Mozgov had an unfathomable 23 points, 29 rebounds, three blocks, three assists and a steal to grab the spotlight for one night (we’ll just ignore the late, airball three-point attempt), but the truth is that the Russian big man has been solid for Denver all season. At 27, Mozgov seems to have finally settled into a consistent NBA role, averaging over nine points, six rebounds and a block per game in a little over 21 minutes per night. In addition, he’s had a career year on the advanced metrics side with a PER over 16 and a Win Shares per 48 minutes above .110.
Mozgov has proven throughout the year that he has become more than just an NBA poster punchline for the game’s great leapers, and last night was the greatest example yet. Even better for the Nuggets, Mozgov will make just $4.65 million next season with a $4.95 million team option in 2015-16. Whether they see him as part of the future or view him as a trade chip, that’s a solid deal.
And then there’s ‘The Manimal.’ You never want to read too much into a great, late season stretch of ball for a player on a team just playing out the string, but Faried’s performance over the last quarter of a season has at least forced us to take notice. Over his last 22 games, the 24-year-old has averaged 19.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals and nearly a block per game on 55 percent shooting and 70 percent free throw shooting. During that time (since February 27), Faried has posted a top-20 Player Impact Estimate, according to NBA.com/stats.
Faried is eligible for a contract extension this summer. If the Nuggets don’t extend him before the October 31 deadline, he’ll become a restricted free agent in 2015, but the team still controls the situation.
The Nuggets don’t have much, if any, cap space over the next couple of years and their lottery pick this year should be a late one. That seems troubling for a 45-loss team, but they’ll still get the better of the picks between their own and the Knicks’ pick (Orlando will get the less favorable pick), which could climb into the top-10 if New York loses another game or two in the overall standings during the final week of the season, and they’re not exactly starting with a bare shelf when it comes to young talent.
This is still a team with talent at the worst of times, as we saw on Thursday, but if they can get/stay healthy, it’s a potentially explosive team at that. And with even just a bit of lottery luck, they may yet add another intriguing young piece to the mix this June.
It’s been a disappointing season in The Mile High City and the Western Conference isn’t getting any easier, but there’s reason to believe Nuggets fans may not have to wait years for a return to relevance - rather just the six months between now and the start of next season.