Donaldson vs. Trout: 5 stats that could define the MVP race

The 2015 AL MVP race is unlike the polarizing Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout debate from two seasons ago, but the gap between this year's candidates is arguably smaller.

Most prognosticators believe Josh Donaldson will deny Trout a second straight MVP on the laurels of a dominant second half and the Toronto Blue Jays' success as a team. Proponents of Trout, however, argue that, once again, the advanced metrics - and even some traditional stats - favor the Los Angeles Angels superstar.

With the winner set to be revealed Thursday night, here are five stats that might have swayed the vote in either direction:

Donaldson's 123 RBIs

Voters who favor counting stats like runs batted in will surely cast their vote for Donaldson, who trumped Trout's modest total of 90 by a considerable margin, despite both players hitting 41 homers. The voting class has evolved enough in recent years to know that RBIs alone aren't indicative of a player's offensive value, but the narrative remains strong enough to swing some votes Donaldson's way.

Trout's weighted numbers

Anti-RBI stats like weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and weighted runs created (wRC+) provide necessary context for Trout's MVP case. He not only reached base more often than Donaldson, but he produced better overall numbers despite playing in a tougher home ballpark. Trout's advantage in walks and triples helped him to a 17-point advantage in wOBA, widely considered to be the most comprehensive offensive stat available.

The Blue Jays' 93 wins

History has shown that voters favor team success heavily when casting their MVP ballot, giving Donaldson a significant edge over his counterpart. While Donaldson's Blue Jays won 93 games en route to ending the longest postseason drought in sports, Trout was single-handedly willing his 85-win Angels to one game shy of the playoffs. Though Donaldson's supporting cast was unequivocally stronger, playing for a first-place team will likely win him more first-place votes.

Monthly Splits

With the exception of team success, the biggest storyline cited by Donaldson supporters has been his perceived edge during the second half. While Donaldson performed the best he had all season in August as the Blue Jays erased an eight-game deficit in the AL East, Trout's production - and the Angels' playoff hopes - slowed considerably, in part because of nagging injuries. The MVP vote could come down to how voters appropriate the timing of each player's success.

Trout's WAR

Trout led the AL in WAR for a fourth straight season in 2015, maintaining his dominance over baseball's so-called all-encompassing stat. Though the result seemingly bolsters Trout's status as the best all-around player in the majors, it was Donaldson who surprisingly held the advantage in baserunning and defense. In keeping with advanced stats, Donaldson's flair for the dramatics gave him a slight edge in clutchness, or, as it's refereed to more technically, win probability added.

(Courtesy: FanGraphs)