In this four-part series, Jonah Birenbaum of theScore's MLB staff will assess all 34 candidates on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot, placing each player into one of four categories: Jokers, Maybes, PED pariahs, or Cooperstown Kings.
Check out the first installment of the four-part series here.
Maybes: A plaque at Cooperstown is unlikely for these players, though some may receive enough votes to appear on the 2016 ballot
Carlos Delgado
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 39.4
AVG. JAWS (1B): 54.7
A tremendous hitter whose talent was rivalled only by his consistency, Delgado singlehandedly compelled Toronto Blue Jays fans to pay attention in the lean years following the team's consecutive World Series championships of 1992 and 1993. Though he never received the recognition he deserved, Delgado averaged 37 home runs and 38 doubles per season from 1997 to 2006 and only once during that span did he post an OPS below .907 or play in fewer than 142 games. Delgado's accomplishments were dwarfed by the era in which he played, but he was still an elite hitter for an entire decade and finished his career with 473 homers, tops among Puerto Rico-born players.
Darin Erstad
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 30.5
AVG. JAWS (CF): 54.7
Erstad enjoyed the auspicious start to his MLB career that was widely expected when he was taken first overall in the 1995 draft. However, the University of Nebraska product peaked far too early and through the latter stages of his career was unable to resemble the player who amassed 8.7 WAR at the age of 26. After hitting .355/.409/.541 (137 OPS+) with 25 homers and 28 stolen bases in 2000, Erstad never again managed a wRC+ above 100 through his final nine seasons and proved to be little more than replacement level once his defensive skills eroded.
Nomar Garciaparra
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 43.6
AVG. JAWS (SS): 54.7
Had injuries not eviscerated the second half of Garciaparra's career, it's reasonable to presume the idiosyncratic shortstop would've earned a plaque at Cooperstown this year. Few shortstops have hit like Garciaparra, who compiled a ridiculous .323/.370/.555 line (134 OPS+) across the first eight seasons of his career - all of them with the Boston Red Sox. A ceaseless spate of injuries, however, limited him to just 506 games over his final six seasons in the majors (averaging 84 per year) while zapping him of the offensive skills that made him a bona fide superstar years earlier.
Brian Giles
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 44.1
AVG. JAWS (RF): 58.1
It's easy to see how Giles' exploits often go underappreciated - he played in the same league as Barry Bonds in his prime - but the burly outfielder enjoyed a six-year span where he ranked among the game's elite hitters. Giles, a 17th-round pick in 1989, managed a robust 151 OPS+ from 1999 to 2005, exhibiting both immense power and tremendous plate discipline. Only 11 other players managed a walk rate of at least 15% while producing an isolated power of .250 or better over that span, but Giles' peak was simply too brief - not to mention his sub-par defensive skills - and the threshold in right field in simply too high for him to warrant serious consideration.
Tom Gordon
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 29.3
AVG. JAWS (RP): 34.4
The diminutive right-hander spent an entire decade in the majors trying to make it as a starter before he accepted his destiny and became a full-time reliever following the 1997 campaign. That decision, however, proved to be among the wisest he ever made, as Gordon's stuff proved much more electric in small doses. From 1998 to 2009, Gordon struck out more than a batter per inning while producing 11.5 WAR - the tenth-most among relievers over that span - across stints with seven teams.
Jeff Kent
% of vote (2014): 15.2%
JAWS: 45.4
AVG. JAWS (2B): 57.0
You can count on two hands the number of second baseman in the live-ball era whose offensive accomplishments have rivaled those of Jeff Kent, the famously cantankerous five-time All-Star who clobbered 377 home runs with a 123 OPS+ over 17 seasons in the majors. At the height of his career, Kent hit behind Barry Bonds for a San Francisco Giants club that made four playoff appearances in Kent's six years with the organization. Though his relationship with Bonds often proved contentious, Kent's tenure in San Francisco was nothing short of superb, as he led all second basemen in WAR, wRC+, and home runs from 1997 to 2002.
Don Mattingly
% of vote (2014): 8.2%
JAWS: 38.9
AVG. JAWS (1B): 54.2
There's a longstanding disconnect between Mattingly and the legacy he inspired, as the popular first baseman is often hailed as a better player than he really was. Mattingly did indeed enjoy a four-year span where he ranked among the best hitters on the planet, but the rest of his 11-year career was otherwise undistinguished, and his career 124 wRC+ doesn't even crack the top-50 at his position (min. 5000 plate appearances). Also, he couldn't even win a World Series with the Yankees. Who can't win a World Series with the Yankees?
Fred McGriff
% of vote (2014): 11.7%
JAWS: 44.1
AVG. JAWS (1B): 54.2
When scouts watch young players in the batter's box, they're pretty much hoping to see Fred McGriff. Who wouldn't pine for that kind of hitting prowess? (McGriff's career batting average: .284). That kind of power? (McGriff tallied 493 career homers). That kind of strike-zone awareness and plate discipline? (McGriff posted a career 12.8 percent walk rate). That ability to drive the ball with authority without forsaking consistent contact? (McGriff struck out in 18.7 percent of his plate appearances). McGriff's only weaknesses were that he played a position with a frighteningly high HOF threshold and that he ended up on a ballot teeming with other deserving candidates.
Lee Smith
% of vote (2014): 29.9%
JAWS: 25.4
AVG. JAWS (RP): 34.3
Smith is likely to be known as the guy who held the all-time saves record before Trevor Hoffman (and eventually Mariano Rivera), but that's something of an inadequate label for one of the most accomplished relief pitchers in history. Smith appeared in 1,021 games over 18 seasons in the major leagues - the 12th-most in history - while crafting a 2.93 fielding independent pitching through stops with eight teams. Longevity remains the foundation of Smith's case for Cooperstown, but the 6-foot-5 right-hander still enjoyed a time as one of the game's top relievers.
*The JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) was developed by sabermetrician Jay Jaffe - first at Baseball Prospectus in 2004 - as a means to measure a player's Hall of Fame worthiness by comparing him to the players at his position who are already enshrined, using advanced metrics to account for the wide variations in offensive levels that have occurred throughout the game's history ... A player's JAWS is his career WAR averaged with his 7-year peak WAR (not necessarily consecutive years).
