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jeremy hellickson accepted the $17.2M qualifying offer
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 14, 2016
Jeremy Hellickson's 2016 marked a surprising uptick in his fantasy value. Between 2013 and 2015, Hellickson had health issues and seemed to lose his ability to keep runs off the board. He had a 22-27 record with a 4.86 ERA, a 4.29 FIP and a pedestrian 7.3 K/9 in the three seasons before joining the Philadelphia Phillies.
He followed this up with a 12-10 record on a bad Phillies team behind an improved 3.71 ERA. The K/9 stayed the same, but he no longer hurt owners in other categories. Hellickson became a wonderful streaming option worth holding onto in mixed leagues.
Wins Matter
It comes as a bit of a surprise, then, that Hellickson opted to accept the qualifying offer because the free agent pool is extremely weak for pitching. It also dampens his overall fantasy prospects because Philadelphia is still a couple years away from being serious contenders again. While Hellickson overcame this once, it's far from a sure thing.
It would have been preferable for potential Hellickson owners if he had signed with a National League contender like the San Francisco Giants or the division-rival Miami Marlins, a team that appears pitching-starved. Instead, his win-loss totals could easily dwindle on what is likely to be the NL East bottom-feeder.
For Hellickson to be a target on draft day, he would have had to sign with a contender. He did not do this. Acquiring IF Howie Kendrick did not suddenly change the fate of this team. Philadelphia is a young team with a lot of future promise from 1B Tommy Joseph to Triple-A SS J.P. Crawford, but its fortunes in 2017 aren't exactly promising and aren't encouraging for Hellickson.
A Phillies resurgence is down the road and you can't count on the wins sticking around in the present tense. With Hellickson's strikeout totals being fairly unimpressive, he once again becomes a streaming option in case of injury or if matchups line up well.
Hellickson also returned to a cutter he had ignored since 2012, which was the last time he posted a sub-4.00 ERA. If he sticks to that, any regression in wins or stagnation in Ks could be tolerated as a SP5 in a pinch.
The Rest of the Class
With qualifying offer in tow, Hellickson represents a big hole in the free agent pool. The Phillies aren't expected to be a major player on the free agent front, so they're one team that won't hinder the talents of the top remaining options.
For a brief moment, it appeared that Hellickson could have been the best of the free agent pitchers heading into 2017. With him signing with Philadelphia, he has become less appealing than any of the current top options.
