Tour Championship betting preview: Double down on Webb at East Lake

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The Tour Championship is the most difficult - and confusing - tournament to bet on the entire PGA Tour calendar. Plain and simple.

First off, the staggered-scoring format places current FedEx Cup leader Dustin Johnson at 10-under before hitting a single shot. Jon Rahm trails him at 8-under with the rest of the field assigned a starting score based on their positions on the points list at the end of last week's event.

That format also creates two different markets to bet. The first one is for the FedEx Cup, so the starting strokes come into play. In this scenario, Johnson's starting score of 10-under is heavily factored into his prices. The other market is without starting strokes, so everyone is level prior to tee off, just like a regular PGA Tour stop.

Since only a few players have a reasonable chance at winning the FedEx Cup, the market that factors in starting strokes offers little value. It's also hard to find value in the secondary market (the one without starting strokes) because there are only 30 players in the field.

But that doesn't mean we won't try!

The course

• East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta
• 7,346 yards, par 70
• Bermuda grass greens
• All four par 3s over 195 yards
• Tree-lined, parklands course with emphasis on approach play

Past winners at East Lake

2019: Rory McIlroy
2018: Tiger Woods
2017: Xander Schauffele
2016: Rory McIlroy
2015: Jordan Spieth
2014: Billy Horschel
2013: Henrik Stenson

The favorites

Beginning with the favorites, Johnson is extremely tough to bet on at +175 with strokes and +500 without strokes. Starting with a lead is odd, as Justin Thomas proved last year, admittedly struggling to deal with his 2-shot lead before the tournament even started.

Rahm at +275 and +550 is also easy to pass on. He played great last week, but these numbers are far too short regardless of his starting position.

Webb Simpson is the most enticing option among the favorites in both markets. After taking last week off to rest, Simpson should be fresh at East Lake while the rest of the field needs to quickly recover after a tough tournament at Olympia Fields. Simpson is only four behind Johnson to begin the week - a deficit that could vanish after a strong opening round.

The next tier

In this range, you'll find players with drastically different odds in both markets.

Defending champion Rory McIlroy is +2500 to win the FedEx Cup but is starting seven shots behind Johnson and five behind Rahm. That is a lot of ground to make up over two very talented players. Plus, his wife, Erica, is expecting a baby very shortly, and McIlroy said he would withdraw from East Lake the moment she goes into labor.

Collin Morikawa is five shots back of Johnson, the same position McIlroy started in last year when he won the FedEx Cup. At +2000, that seems a little short considering the pre-tournament deficit, but if you like him to win the 72-hole stroke-play portion and don't have to worry as much about Johnson's week, +1800 is worth consideration.

The same goes for Daniel Berger, who was +1800 to win the BMW Championship last week in a 70-man field. Going back to Bermuda grass should help Berger's recent putting woes. If you don't like his chances starting six behind Johnson, betting him without strokes is a viable option.

The long shots

There's really nothing worth looking at in this range from a FedEx Cup perspective. Starting seven or eight shots back of Johnson is such a large gap, it would take a miracle to pull off the comeback.

Tony Finau at +1800 in the stroke-play market is a solid value. He played very well Sunday at Olympia Fields, and it would be fitting for a player who struggles to find the winner's circle to post the lowest 72-hole total but not walk away with the trophy.

Joaquin Niemann (+5000 to shoot low 72-hole score) is another option among the long shots. He likely won't win the FedEx Cup starting at 2-under, but his ball-striking was on fire last week and should continue at East Lake.

Picks to win

Webb Simpson (+1100 to win the FedEx Cup) and (+1400 to shoot low 72-hole score)

If Simpson does win the FedEx Cup and come from four shots back, it's fairly safe to assume that he will also be in the hunt to shoot the low 72-hole score. Betting him in both markets could pay off handsomely if he pulls out the victory, and if Johnson somehow hangs on to win the FedEx Cup, Simpson is still alive to post the lowest total for the week.

Taking last week off could be huge for Simpson. The week at Olympia Fields was likely taxing for everyone in the event. While his competitors were draining themselves on the tough U.S. Open-type setup, Simpson was at home preparing for a course where he's played extremely well in the past.

Tyrrell Hatton (+2500 to shoot low 72-hole score)

Tyrrell Hatton is one of the larger values out there in the market without starting strokes. His +2500 is about as short as you will find, yet it's still worth taking. He was solid at Olympia Fields, gaining strokes everywhere except on the greens. Returning to Bermuda grass, the same surface he won on at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, should reignite his generally hot putter.