NHL Fantasy: 5 potential busts to avoid

The following players should still be valuable in fantasy, but we project they'll underperform relative to their average draft position (ADP).

Mitch Marner, RW, Golden Knights

ADP: 18.6

Marner is too talented to not produce at a high level, but some modest growing pains during his first season as a Golden Knight wouldn't be shocking.

It's not uncommon for players to struggle out of the gate with a new team and the pressure of a lucrative contract. Marner, a true playmaker, also won't have the benefit of playing alongside a world-class finisher like Auston Matthews anymore. Jack Eichel is a great talent, too, but he's also more of a pass-first player, and it remains to be seen if he and Marner will jell.

Marner isn't a high-volume shooter and doesn't hit much either; he needs goals and assists to be valuable in fantasy hockey. There should be players available in the back half of the second round who carry less risk, such as Evan Bouchard (19.5 ADP), Sam Reinhart (23.5 ADP), and Brayden Point (24.5 ADP).

Alex Ovechkin, LW/RW, Capitals

ADP: 37.6

Ovechkin has always been a fantasy beast thanks to his ability to rack up goals, shots, hits, and power-play points, but Father Time catches up to everyone - even the Russian Machine.

It was undeniably extraordinary for Ovechkin to score 44 goals in 65 games at age 39 in a season in which he broke his leg. However, some of the magic from his record-breaking campaign could wear off in 2025-26. Ovechkin scored on 18.6% of his shots on goal last season - his highest mark ever, and well above his career average of 13.1%.

If Ovechkin reverts to his 31-goal, 65-point output from 2023-24, he won't be worth his fourth-round draft slot.

Macklin Celebrini, C, Sharks

ADP: 42.5

Celebrini is clearly not a bust in reality, but he could be one in fantasy this season. Big things are expected at this lofty ADP, and penciling him in as a fourth-round pick is too big a leap of faith.

The 2024 No. 1 pick will be punished in leagues that include plus/minus. He was minus-31 last season and likely won't improve that figure much on a Sharks team projected to finish near the bottom of the standings.

Rather than banking on a massive Celebrini breakout this early in your draft, go with more proven commodities in their primes such as Tim Stutzle (44.8 ADP), Nick Suzuki (51.1 ADP), or Aleksander Barkov (52 ADP).

Jake Oettinger, G, Stars

ADP: 19

A goalie has to be truly special to be selected in the first two rounds of your fantasy draft, and it's fair to wonder if Oettinger fits the bill. He's been a legitimate workhorse the last few years but has posted sub-.910 save percentages in back-to-back seasons.

It also remains to be seen if the Stars will take a step back defensively after making a coaching change. Pete DeBoer consistently produced goalie-friendly environments, but the same can't be said for replacement Glen Gulutzan, who owns a spotty track record as a head coach and was known as more of an offensive assistant.

At this point in your draft, several skaters would be significantly safer picks, like Bouchard, Reinhart, or Point.

Mackenzie Blackwood, G, Avalanche

ADP: 24.5

It's easy to understand why Blackwood is being drafted this high. He's a talented goalie who was great for the Avalanche in 2024-25 after being acquired from the Sharks midseason. His situation in Colorado is as good as it gets. The offense will provide plenty of goal support, and the blue line only got stronger with the addition of Brent Burns.

However, this is mighty early to select a goalie who was mostly off the fantasy radar entering last season and comes with a lengthy injury history. He's already dealing with an ailment to begin camp, and it's unclear if he'll be ready for the season opener.

If you're set on drafting a goalie this early, somebody with a more established track record like Igor Shesterkin (31.6 ADP) is a less risky pick.