The fuzziness of Connor McDavid's future, explained

Some NHL fans awoke from their offseason slumber this week, wondering if the headlines they'd skimmed while sipping a beer by the lake were as juicy as they originally seemed.

Is Connor McDavid signing a contract extension with the Oilers or not? What is going on?!

The confusion's understandable. Modern NHL stars tend to choose the certainty and security of a long-term deal over the great unknown that is unrestricted free agency. Some, including all-timer Sidney Crosby, ink multiple long-term extensions to all but guarantee they'll retire as a one-team player.

McDavid, 28 years old and at the peak of his powers, is entering the final season of an eight-year, $100-million deal. He became eligible to sign a new contract with Edmonton on July 1. However, it's early September and McDavid's future beyond 2025-26 is fuzzy. At Team Canada's Olympic orientation camp in Calgary last week, he told reporters he has "every intention to win in Edmonton" yet "all options are on the table."

I checked in with a few contacts around the NHL, and this is my main takeaway from those conversations: McDavid is being truthful. He didn't misspeak. He truly hasn't made a decision about his future, and all options are indeed in play.

Those options include re-signing before the Oct. 8 season opener, re-signing during the season, re-signing after the season, or testing free agency next July. That last option is a whopper, as McDavid - a generational player with a burning desire to win - would be the most sought-after UFA in league history.

Let's dig a little deeper by running through some pertinent questions.

First of all, why hasn't the Oilers captain re-signed?

This isn't a normal situation. There's very little, if any, negotiating to be done by the Oilers. They're prepared to essentially hand McDavid a blank check.

But it's clear from both McDavid's public comments and word around the league that he isn't convinced the Oilers are set up to be a top-tier Stanley Cup contender beyond 2025-26. Most of the core supporting McDavid and fellow superstar Leon Draisaitl is on the wrong side of the aging curve. High-usage players like Mattias Ekholm, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Darnell Nurse are all 30 or older, while the next wave isn't flush with can't-miss talent.

Isaac Howard and Matthew Savoie lead a prospect group ranked 30th by Elite Prospects and 31st by The Athletic. Both wingers are expected to challenge for top six spots this season, yet neither has a particularly high ceiling.

Meanwhile, the future of the goaltending position is completely up in the air.

What can management do to sell No. 97 on staying?

The Oilers lost to the Panthers in Game 7 of the 2024 Cup Final, then Game 6 of the 2025 final. They've come agonizingly close twice in two years. That would be the pitch to McDavid: We're right there, man. Please trust that we'll improve the supporting cast and get across the finish line one of these years.

Signing offensive dynamo Evan Bouchard to a four-year deal in June was a nice win. However, the rest of the summer wasn't overly productive, with Howard and Andrew Mangiapane counting as the Oilers' splashiest acquisitions.

General manager Stan Bowman can't sit on his hands. He must get creative, which is much easier said than done. Edmonton is in a cap crunch (it currently has $225,834 in space, according to PuckPedia), and the team doesn't have its 2026 first-round pick or enticing young players it could use to reel in an impact player via trade.

McDavid, the 2015 first overall pick, has been an Oiler for a decade. He's been wildly productive. He's been incredibly patient. He's grown into a leader.

He doesn't owe the organization anything, and he wants to hoist the Cup.

Right, but might this whole situation become a distraction?

Theoretically, yes. Then again, this is a special case.

McDavid, identified as a phenom at a very young age, has been under intense pressure and scrutiny for most of his life. It's a safe bet that any "noise" that's created by entering the season without an extension - if that’s what he chooses to do - won't affect his play. He's an exceptional talent partly because he performs at an elite level no matter what's going on around him.

How McDavid's uncertain future affects the rest of the roster remains to be seen. The hockey world will be following every new development closely.

What's the case for McDavid ultimately re-signing?

Here's a list of things the Oilers can provide that other franchises can't:

• Draisaitl (perfect running mate signed through 2032-33)
• Established roots (wife Lauren has launched multiple businesses)
• Longer contract (nobody else can offer an eight-year deal)
• Unfinished business (third time's a charm in the Cup Final?)

In short, the grass isn't always greener. There are benefits to staying put.

McDavid has tremendous bargaining power in Edmonton.

He's the best player in the world, and the salary cap is rising. Maybe he goes NBA star mode and re-signs for one year to keep the Oilers' feet to the fire, maintain flexibility, and maximize his earnings. Perhaps something in the two-to-five-year range works. Or, who knows, eight years might be the right call.

McDavid was once represented by Oilers president Jeff Jackson. His current agent is Judd Moldaver, who also reps Auston Matthews, Zach Werenski, and Roman Josi, among others, for Wasserman. Matthews is one of the rare NHL stars who's been unafraid of medium-term deals; he signed for five years at $11.6 million per season in 2019 and four years at $13.3 million per in 2023.

What kind of money can McDavid command?

No matter when or where he signs, McDavid will raise the salary bar.

Draisaitl's the highest earner for 2025-26 thanks to a record average annual value of $14 million, which accounted for 15.2% of the salary cap's upper limit last September. The collective bargaining agreement states a player can sign for a maximum 20%. With the '25-26 cap set at $95.5 million, McDavid's deal would max out at $19.1 million per year if he signs before the end of this season.

It's extremely difficult to build a championship hockey team with a single player, even one as magnificent as McDavid, eating up a fifth of the payroll for a 23-man team. So, even though McDavid may be deserving of making nearly $20 million a season, the chances of him signing for the max are slim.

McDavid signed for 15.7% of the cap in 2017. That's still the highest mark of all time.

John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter/X (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).