Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Looking for in-series value after Game 4s of Round 2

Even though, statistically, Game 3s have been studied to be more critical to a team's overall win probability of a series, it's hard not to believe that a Game 4 - where a team can either draw even, go down 3-1, or go home - isn't the most pivotal of the first four games in a best-of-seven.

With a big chunk of data built up through four games, let's take a look at each series to see if there's anything worth playing in the in-series betting markets.

Series: Devils (+500) vs. Hurricanes (-700)

Even-strength numbers

Normally, I try to take the Hurricanes' constant domination in even-strength expected goals with a grain of salt, as their high-danger chance numbers don't always match what their puck pressure creates in the analytics. However, whether it's having watched the four games or acknowledging that 20 of the Devils' 45 high-danger chances in this series came as part of their one big effort in Game 3, predicting New Jersey to take three straight games would seem foolhardy.

There's a bigger issue afoot for the Devils, and that's between the pipes. Vitek Vanecek's goals saved above expected is the worst in these playoffs by a mile at -8.08, behind Andrei Vasilevskiy's surprisingly bad -3.69 in the first round. Akira Schmid has actually stopped around a half-goal above expected per goal, but Lindy Ruff made him the scapegoat for the first two games in Carolina and might now be out of confident options.

Series: Kraken (+170) vs. Stars (-210)

Even-strength numbers

Our stance for this series has long been, "The Stars, but not at these prices," and only diverted from that twice: after they lost Game 1, and when the Stars were being priced at a discount prior to confirmation that Miro Heiskanen would be OK to play in Game 4.

The Stars are driving the even-strength play at about a 56% rate, and it could be argued that outside of two very unusual segments in this series - four Kraken goals in four minutes of Game 1 and four more goals in six minutes after Heiskanen was maimed in Game 3 - Dallas has been the vastly superior team. However, laying more than 2-to-1 odds for Dallas to finally vanquish the Kraken should be left for those who didn't make a bet after Game 1 and are without futures positions on the Stars and their best Conn Smythe candidates.

Series: Panthers (-425) vs. Maple Leafs (+325)

Even-strength numbers

They needed the help of a referee shin pad, a post, and the back of Sergei Bobrovsky's head, but the Maple Leafs kept hope alive of pulling off a fifth 0-3 comeback in a Stanley Cup Playoffs series.

After Game 3, the Leafs were still in the neighborhood of just +700 to win what amounts to four straight coin flips - if you adhere to the largely even on-ice metrics. As you might assume, that was a less advantageous payout versus just rolling over Toronto moneylines, but either option seemed too short for something that has historically happened around 2% of the time. After Toronto found its first of four required wins Wednesday, +325 isn't enough to bet on three more.

Series: Oilers (-165) vs. Golden Knights (+140)

Even-strength numbers

We were getting to the point where the Oilers, their fans, and their backers probably had flashbacks to years past when goaltending - or a lack thereof - undermined whatever five-on-five advantage they had. Instead of leaving it up to Stuart Skinner, Edmonton strangled the Golden Knights defensively in Game 4 with just 0.86 expected goals against. The Oilers also generated six power plays - unlike in Game 3 where it took them 36 minutes to get one.

Edmonton is -130 on the moneyline to take Game 5 in Vegas, and the impending suspension of Alex Pietrangelo, who leads Vegas in ice time, changes the calculus for the series. A series price of -165 suggests Edmonton needs to win the series 62.3% of the time, and if you haven't been adding Oilers bets before the series, or when they've trailed, you can still back Connor McDavid and Co. at a decent price.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.