NHL Tuesday best bets: Moving pieces the key to a pair of Game 4s
Sunday saw cameo appearances in both New Jersey and Seattle as a pair of goaltenders came in for relief midgame. The Hurricanes mercy-pulled Frederik Andersen in their 8-4 loss to the Devils, giving Pyotr Kochetkov a look in mop-up duty. Later, Jake Oettinger got the hook for Scott Wedgewood after the Stars lost all hope of taking a series lead over the Kraken.
We try to figure out what to make of Game 4 in both series in what's been a weird second round across the NHL.
Hurricanes (+125) @ Devils (-145), 5.5
Prospective bettors may have scratched their heads as they watched the Devils - fresh off two one-sided losses in Carolina - get bet up to as high as -165 on the moneyline for Game 3. That level of confidence seemed extreme after the Devils controlled even-strength play to the tune of a 60% expected goals share in Raleigh.
That confidence was rewarded, though, as the Devils were full value for their win Sunday with 62% xG at even strength - right in line with the implied win probability of a team favored at -165.
We look at those metrics to help decide whether a dominant score reflected the play on the ice. The Devils' win was no fluke, even if it's not clear why it takes New Jersey two games to get fully ensconced in a series.
Vitek Vanecek returned between the pipes in Game 3 but, with four goals against, he didn't exactly steal the game. On the other hand, after allowing just nine even-strength high-danger chances in each of the first two games, Carolina allowed 20 in Game 3.
We'll see whether New Jersey gets steamed back up before puck drop again, but with the Devils priced at a 59.2% chance of evening the series, they're worth backing to continue their strong play at home.
Bet: Devils moneyline (-145)
Stars (-135) @ Kraken (+115), 5.5
Anyone with a long-term position on the Stars is hoping that the entire outlook of the Stanley Cup Playoffs wasn't altered by one errant shot that found the face of Dallas defenseman Miro Heiskanen on Sunday night.
Jordan Eberle scooped up the puck after it hit Heiskanen square in the face and beat an unsuspecting Oettinger. It can't be a coincidence that the Kraken scored three more times in the next six minutes with the Stars' defensive rotation in flux after Heiskanen left. While we'd normally expect Dallas to bounce back, we'd need confirmation of Heiskanen's return from a facial laceration to feel good about it.
The prevailing assumption might be that Oettinger will perform better in Game 4 as he did after Game 1 and after Game 3 of the series against the Wild. However, the Kraken seem more equipped than most teams to beat Oettinger, having converted 17.8% of their even-strength high-danger chances in this series. Plus, in a scheduling quirk, the Kraken faced Oettinger and the Stars three times in March - their only meetings of the season. They scored 10 times, converting a whopping six of 21 high-danger chances in those games.
With or without Heiskanen (whom I expect to play), I predict a more pointed offensive effort from Dallas, but Seattle has proven it's unafraid of Oettinger. As a result, it's worth a bet on these two teams to help improve the over to 7-0 in their matchups this season.
Bet: Over 5.5 (-115)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.