SNF bets: Do Lions deserve to be underdogs in Philly?
A massive NFC clash between the Eagles and Lions closes out Sunday's action. These are two of the top three favorites to win the conference, which means this could be a preview of January's NFC Championship Game.
Let's dive into our pick against the spread (ATS), player props, and touchdown scorers for Sunday Night Football.
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π Pick: Lions (+2.5)
For as good as the 7-2 Eagles have been this season, something is off with this group. Their offense looked lost in a 10-7 win over the Packers on Monday, and the unit has struggled to find a groove all year. Perhaps A.J. Brown continually voicing his displeasure to the media makes things seem worse than they are, but Philadelphia's averaging just 318.2 yards per game, which ranks 24th in the NFL.
The Lions, meanwhile, boast a top-10 offense and defense based on EPA/play, according to SumerSports. Only the Rams, Seahawks, and Colts can also claim those marks. Detroit cooked the Commanders last week in a 44-point outing, its first since Dan Campbell took over as play-caller.
Home-field advantage is the only thing working in Philadelphia's favor here. The Lions are the better team on both sides of the ball. They can win tight, low-scoring games or blow out opponents with their high-powered offense. This spread suggests the Eagles would be slight favorites on a neutral field. I disagree and will gladly back the Lions getting 2.5 points.
π Bet: Over 3.5 receptions
Williams had a huge day against Washington with Campbell calling the offense, catching six passes for 119 yards and a touchdown. He was a focal point of the passing attack, running routes that allowed Jared Goff to get him the ball easily. The markets haven't adjusted to Williams' increased role, so capitalize while you can.
π Bet: Over 204.5 passing yards
I was on Hurts' passing yard prop of 199.5 in Monday night's game. He threw for 183 yards, but it was the first time this season he registered under 200 yards on at least 25 passing attempts. If there's a way to attack the Lions' defense, it's through the air. I expect Hurts to find more success at home against a mediocre secondary.
π Bet: Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards
Gibbs smashed this total last week, going for 172 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. The Eagles' defense is in a completely different tier than that of the Commanders, but Gibbs is as explosive a back as you'll find in the NFL and could easily hit this number on rushing yards alone. He's surpassed 89 total yards five times this season and will need to turn in another elite performance for the Lions to win.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+145)
Alright, we'll bite. Everyone's heard about the drama involving Brown, who voiced his frustrations related to the Eagles' offense this week. When a similar situation happened last season, the star wideout caught a touchdown the following week against the Steelers. This is a familiar spot with an excellent matchup for Brown. He dominates man coverage, and the Lions play it at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Detroit has also given up 18 scores through the air this year, ranking 25th.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+165)
The Eagles have the best red-zone passing defense in football, allowing the lowest completion percentage (37.5%) and fewest passing touchdowns (three). That makes Montgomery at +165 a great value, as he's scored five touchdowns in nine games and sits in the top 15 in red-zone carries.
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