NFL Week 11 picks: Can Bills rebound at home vs. pesky Bucs?

I'm back in the saddle after having a week off to lick my wounds following a tough slate of games in Week 9. Sam filled in admirably in my absence, going 8-4 against the spread. The pressure is on to keep the winning picks going for Week 11.

Let's get to the picks against the spread (ATS) for Sunday's slate. You can find Sunday Night Football's preview in a separate article.

👉 Check out all of the Week 11 lines available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Jump to: Late slate

🏈 Pick: Commanders (+2.5)

The Commanders look like they've given up on the season, but a trip to Madrid may rejuvenate (for at least one game) a team that had high expectations to begin the year. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are coming off a shocking win over the Bills and could easily take their foot off the gas following their biggest victory of the season. This spread suggests Miami would be four-point favorites at home, which feels too high.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Chargers (-2.5)

The Jaguars have one win over their past four games - a one-point victory over the Raiders - and haven't looked good since beating the Chiefs in Week 5. Despite owning the worst offensive line in the NFL, the Chargers scored 25 points against the Steelers last week and are a better team than Jacksonville on both sides of the ball. Asking Justin Herbert to win by a field goal isn't requesting much.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Falcons (-3.5)

The Panthers' season may have peaked with their road victory over the Packers in Week 9, considering they followed it up with a 10-point loss to the Saints. The Falcons, meanwhile, were shut out 30-0 when these teams met in September. But now it's time for revenge. They're losers of four straight and should be extremely desperate to end the skid. Expect Bijan Robinson to carry Atlanta to a convincing home win.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Bengals (+5.5)

This spread favors the Steelers too much in a divisional game versus a team that beat them four weeks ago. The Bengals have their flaws, but Joe Flacco has kept their playoff hopes alive. They also have the rest advantage, and 5.5 points is a lot, considering how close these teams have played each other in the past.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Titans (+5.5)

C.J. Stroud remains out with a concussion, so Davis Mills will be under center again for the Texans. They scored 26 fourth-quarter points last week in a miraculous comeback, but I can't trust Houston to win by at least six points in back-to-back outings with a backup quarterback. Although the Titans aren't good, they're playing at home and coming off a bye. The hope is that they can keep this divisional matchup close.

Confidence level: ★☆☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Buccaneers (+5.5)

The Bills will almost certainly rebound following their embarrassing loss to the Dolphins, but I'm not sure they've done enough this season to warrant being 5.5-point favorites over a quality opponent. Even with a bunch of key injuries on the Bucs' offense, Baker Mayfield continues to find ways to win and keep his team in close games.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Giants (+7.5)

Sign me up for Jameis Winston time in New York. Winston taking over as the Giants' starter would be a lot more exciting if Malik Nabers was healthy, but he can still provide a spark to the offense that Russell Wilson hasn't. The Packers have been abysmal on offense the last two weeks, scoring only 20 combined points against the Panthers and Eagles. You can't expect Jordan Love and Co. to score enough to cover by more than a touchdown.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Bears (+2.5)

The Vikings fell back to earth last week, losing to the Ravens by eight after beating the Lions on the road in Week 9. J.J. McCarthy is still going through growing pains as an NFL starter, making it tough to lay 3.5 points with Minnesota in a divisional meeting against a Bears team that's also in the playoff hunt. This game feels like a coin flip, so getting 2.5 points with Chicago is fantastic value.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

👉 Check out all of the Week 11 lines available on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: 49ers (-2.5)

Both of these teams got smoked by divisional opponents last week: The 49ers lost to the Rams by 16, and the Cardinals fell to the Seahawks by 22. I still don't believe Jacoby Brissett is the answer in Arizona, and now he's without Marvin Harrison Jr., who had an appendectomy. San Francisco is missing game-changers on defense, but I don't think the Cardinals' offense can capitalize. Plus, Brock Purdy is back for the 49ers to give a boost to their offense.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Seahawks (+3.5)

This matchup has the ingredients to be the game of the week. The Seahawks and Rams are both 7-2 (and 7-2 ATS) and battling for the NFC West lead. Seattle is undefeated on the road this season and rates similarly to Los Angeles on both sides of the ball based on EPA/play, according to SumerSports. I'll side with the team getting 3.5 points in a contest that will likely come down to the final possession.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Chiefs (-3.5)

The Broncos' offense has looked inept over the past two games, scoring only 28 points, with 10 of those coming against the Raiders. Their defense continues to play at a high level, but it's difficult to trust Bo Nix at the moment. The Chiefs are coming off their bye and sit third in the division at 5-4. They need to win this one to make a run for the division crown and should score enough to cover just over a field goal.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Ravens (-7.5)

The Ravens are themselves again with Lamar Jackson and the defense now healthy. Yes, 7.5 points is a lot to cover in a divisional game, but Baltimore won 41-17 over the Browns in Week 2, so it's certainly possible. Cleveland has only scored 21 or more points twice this season and will likely need to reach that number if it has any hope of covering as an underdog.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

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