NFL midseason trends: Why scoring is up, offenses are bigger, and finishes are dramatic

As the NFL passes the midpoint of the season, there are a few trends that have started to develop.

Scoring is up thanks in part to some special teams rule changes and increased aggressiveness on fourth downs, offenses are getting bigger with more plays than ever with an extra lineman or tight end, and no great teams have emerged.

For just the fourth time since the merger, every team in the NFL has at least two losses after nine weeks of the season as no team has risen above the competition. The only other years with no teams with one or fewer losses headed into Week 10 were 1979, 1981 and 2010.

The change is perhaps most evident with the Kansas City Chiefs, who remain the Super Bowl favorites according to BetMGM. despite a 5-4 record that currently would leave them on the outside of the playoff picture. The Chiefs were undefeated at this point last season as they were trying for their unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title.

The top three teams in the league by record — Indianapolis, Denver and New England — have combined for no playoff wins in the past six seasons. The other division leader in the AFC, Pittsburgh, hasn't won a playoff game since 2016.

The AFC could have four new division winners after going back-to-back years with Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston and Kansas City finishing first.

The NFC has a bit more stability with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles currently holding the top seed and have a more than three-game lead in the division with the chance to become the first repeat champion in the NFC East since they did it from 2001-04.

There have also been more dramatic finishes this season with the 35 games decided by a score in the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime tied with 2021 for the most ever through nine weeks.

One big trend so far this season is offenses getting bigger by using extra offensive linemen and more tight ends at an increasingly high pace.

Teams have run 457 plays with at least one extra offensive lineman, nearly double the number in the first nine weeks from 2023. Adding in plays with at least one extra tight end and the league has had the most plays through nine weeks with an extra lineman or tight end as far as records at Sportradar go back to 2006.

The big bodies aren't just for more running with teams passing on more than 25% of plays with an extra lineman or tight end and posting a 101.2 passer rating that is more than 10 points higher than plays with at least three receivers on the field.

The first year of the so-called “dynamic kickoff” didn't produce the results the NFL initially wanted with only a slight increase in returns from a record-low 21.8% in 2023 to 32.8% last season.

Moving the touchback spot from the 30 to the 35 this season has led to a major change with the return rate reaching 79% so far this season for the highest rate in 17 years.

There have only been two kickoff returns for touchdowns but there have been 42 returns of at least 40 yards — the most through nine weeks since there were 53 at this point in 2012.

The changes have also had a positive impact on scoring with the average starting field position following kickoffs being the 30.2 yard line for the best for offenses since at least 2000. Scoring is up more than two points per game than at this point last season.

The kickoff changes aren't the only new rules that have had a major impact so far this season. The league also made changes to how teams can prepare balls used for kicking, allowing preparation before game day for the first time since the 1990s.

The more broken-in balls are traveling further with many kickers estimating they have a few extra yards on their kicks. That has led to a new record for longest field goal when Jacksonville's Cam Little hit a record-setting 68-yarder on Sunday against Las Vegas, breaking the previous mark of 66 held by Justin Tucker.

There have already been an NFL record seven made field goals from at least 60 yards, including two by Dallas' Brandon Aubrey, who missed his own attempt from 68 yards wide left on Monday night against Arizona.

The 39 makes from at least 55 yards are already the fourth most for any entire season and one more than there was for a 13-year span from 1994-2006.

While long kicks are on a record-setting pace, short ones are becoming more rare thanks in part to the improved field position from ensuing kickoffs. The 250 field goal attempts from less than 40 yards are the fewest through nine weeks since 1998.

The improved average starting field position and more coaches willing to be aggressive has the league off to a record-setting pace when it comes to fourth-down attempts.

Even traditionally more conservative coaches like Kansas City's Andy Reid and San Francisco's Kyle Shanahan have gotten into the act with the Chiefs going for it 11 times in the first half for the most in Reid's 13 seasons. The 49ers went for it on their opening drive Sunday against the New York Giants, marking the first time Shanahan had ever attempted a fourth-down try in the first quarter in his own territory.

The 419 fourth-down tries are the most ever through nine weeks with 210 coming in the first three quarters before desperation kicks in.

The success rate is also at a record-setting pace with teams converting 59.7% of tries for the highest rate since at least 2000, including 72.6% on fourth and 1.

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Inside the Numbers dives into NFL statistics, streaks and trends each week. For more Inside the Numbers, head here.

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