TNF bets: Can sizzling Broncos stay hot in divisional showdown vs. Raiders?
The Denver Broncos are riding a six-game winning streak into a Thursday Night Football matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who sit in last place in the AFC West. Unsurprisingly, the Broncos are a massive favorite. But anything can happen on a short week in a divisional matchup.
We have you covered with our pick against the spread, player props, and touchdown scorers for Thursday.
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π Pick: Raiders (+9.5)
The Broncos' six-game winning streak has been full of thrillers and fourth-quarter comebacks. Denver averages 10.7 points in the final frame, the third-most in the NFL. But that also means the Broncos often struggle in the first three quarters.
Geno Smith is coming off his best game of the season in an overtime loss against the Jaguars, where he threw for 284 yards, four touchdowns, and posted a 117.9 passer rating. A big part of the Raiders' passing success was the return of tight end Brock Bowers, who missed all of October with a knee injury.
The Broncos are a much tougher defensive test. They allow the third-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points per game, but Smith and the Raiders' offense should have some confidence after posting a season-high 29 points last Sunday in Bowers' return. With Bowers active, the Raiders average 21.2 points per game. With him sidelined, they average 8 points per game.
Denver is the more talented bunch at almost every position group, but 9.5 points is a wildly high number for a divisional matchup on a short week. I wouldn't trust Las Vegas to pull off the upset, given how clutch Bo Nix has been in fourth quarters, but Denver's offensive inconsistencies in the first three quarters should keep the contest close.
π Bet: Over 59.5 receiving yards
We've already discussed how much more explosive the Raiders' offense is with Bowers in the lineup. Bowers suffered an injury in Week 1 but played through it the next three weeks before being sidelined. Thus, the tight end's number dipped over those three weeks. But in the two games he was healthy - Week 1 against the Pats and in his return last Sunday against the Jaguars - Bowers had 103 and 127 receiving yards, respectively. Sean Payton will try to take away Smith's top weapon, but the Raiders need to force-feed him the ball to move the chains.
π Bet: Under 15.5 rushing attempts
Ashton Jeanty has hit a wall in his rookie season, averaging 3.5 yards or less per carry in his last three games. As a result, the Raiders have decreased his rushing attempts. He hasn't exceeded 15 carries in three of the past four games. The Broncos have the NFL's eighth-best rushing defense. The Raiders won't force the run against Denver, especially if they're trailing as big underdogs.
π Bet: Over 3.5 receptions
Troy Franklin leads the Broncos in targets and is second in receptions. Nix has targeted Franklin 28 times over the last three weeks. While that's only resulted in 13 catches, Nix obviously trusts Franklin and will continue throwing it his way. The more reps they have together, the more frequently those targets will lead to receptions. The Raiders' passing defense ranks in the bottom half, meaning the Broncos should expose Las Vegas' secondary.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+165)
How could you go anywhere else but Bowers here? The second-year star exploded in his return to action, hauling in 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and three touchdowns. Getting him at these odds is a steal, and he should be the focal point of Las Vegas' offense for the rest of the 2025 campaign.
π Bet: Anytime TD (+210)
Harvey has made the most of his opportunities in recent weeks, finding the end zone five times during his last three contests. He's especially been active in the passing game, as he ran routes on over 50% of his first and second down looks last game. For a player who's had a touchdown in three consecutive contests, these are odds you must jump on.
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