MNF bets: Are Chiefs back, or are Jaguars for real?

Monday night's meeting between Kansas City and Jacksonville caps the Week 5 action. One of two questions will be answered by the end of this game: Are the Chiefs back? Or are the Jaguars for real?

Kansas City avoided a 1-3 start last week with a convincing 17-point win over the Ravens. A road victory here would prove that performance wasn't a fluke. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is 3-1 but hasn't beaten anyone of the Chiefs' caliber. If they get past Patrick Mahomes and Co., the Jaguars should be taken seriously in the AFC.

Let's get to our pick, props, and touchdown scorers for Monday night's contest.

🏈 Pick: Chiefs (-3.5)

The Chiefs finally looked like the team that's had multiple Super Bowl runs the past few years. Their defense held Baltimore's offense to 13 points before Lamar Jackson exited midway through the third quarter due to a hamstring injury, while Mahomes passed for 270 yards and four touchdowns.

Kansas City looked lost on offense during its first three games of the season. But speedster Xavier Worthy returned last week to provide a passing option that other teams must respect and game plan for. He made an immediate impact, leading the team with five receptions for 83 yards while adding 38 more on the ground. The second-year wideout helped the Chiefs operate efficiently for the first time all season.

On the other hand, the Jaguars haven't shown enough to get only 3.5 points against a perennial Super Bowl contender. Their three victories have come versus the Panthers, Texans, and a 49ers team led by an injured Brock Purdy. They also lost to the Bengals in a game where Jake Browning took over for Joe Burrow in the second quarter.

This will be the first big test for new head coach Liam Coen. He hasn't been overly impressive through four games despite being hailed as the savior of Trevor Lawrence's career. Brian Thomas Jr., who has just 12 catches on the year, can't get on the same page as Lawrence. And the team hasn't effectively utilized prized rookie Travis Hunter, playing him on both sides of the ball without much success at receiver or cornerback.

The Chiefs' defense proved last week that it remains a dominant force, and Mahomes will outclass the Jaguars on offense. This should be a routine win for Kansas City as it continues to move past its slow start to the season.

🏈 Bet: Over 59.5 receiving yards

Worthy showed no signs of the shoulder injury he sustained in Week 1, and the Chiefs weren't shy about ramping up his usage immediately. Until Rashee Rice returns, Worthy is the only dangerous weapon at Mahomes' disposal. He surpassed this total in five of his last six full games.

🏈 Bet: Over 3.5 receptions

This may come as a surprise, given that the Jaguars have Thomas and Hunter, but Brenton Strange leads the team in receptions and receiving yards. The tight end has 19 catches through four games and brought in at least four during three of those contests. There's no reason to believe Lawrence will move away from his favorite target in an important prime-time showdown.

🏈 Bet: Over 14.5 rushing attempts

Etienne is having a fantastic year following a down 2024-25 season. He's third in the league in rushing yards (394) on 16.3 attempts per game. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are allowing 127 rushing yards per game (22nd in the league). If the Jaguars are going to be competitive in this one, they'll have to keep Mahomes off the field. Running the ball often with Etienne is a good way to achieve that.

NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+125)

Getting Etienne at plus odds against a Chiefs defense that ranks 31st in EPA/rush is too good to pass up. The former first-round pick is on pace for a career year, racking up 426 yards from scrimmage heading into Week 5 while owning a league-leading 6.1 yards per carry. Jacksonville's lead back has also found the end zone in three of the team's first four contests.

🙌 Bet: Anytime TD (+400)

Finding touchdown scorer value among the Chiefs is a nightmare, so we'll take a swing on a long shot. JuJu Smith-Schuster found the end zone last week and has quietly carved out a significant role in this offense. He's played over 74% of Kansas City's offensive snaps this year and leads the team in red-zone targets heading into Monday night.

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