SNF bets: Bills host Patriots in attempt to remain undefeated
The Patriots will pay a visit to Buffalo to take on their AFC East rivals for Sunday Night Football. The Bills are one of two remaining undefeated teams in the league, while New England is an exciting young group that's likely to be their toughest divisional opponent for years to come.
Let's dive into the matchup with a pick, some props, and a pair of touchdown scorers for the meeting at Orchard Park.
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🏈 Pick: Patriots (+8.5)
The Bills may be undefeated, but they're only 2-2 against the spread, having failed to cover in their last two games as double-digit favorites versus the Dolphins and Saints. Buffalo let both teams hang around far too long, and the Patriots are a step up in competition compared to them.
New England is a scrappy team that's shown the ability to score a lot of points, albeit against the poor Dolphins' and Panthers' defenses. Drake Maye is having a fantastic sophomore season and can do some Josh Allen-like things when it comes to creating something out of nothing. Additionally, the Patriots have yet to lose a game by seven or more points.
They always seem to play the Bills tight. Their previous four meetings were determined by seven points or fewer, and I'm willing to bet this will be another close one.
🏈 Bet: Over 5.5 rushing attempts
Maye has rushed at least seven times on two occasions this season, and you can see why he took off running in those games. He had only four carries against the Raiders during a disastrous season opener for the Patriots. In a win over the Dolphins the following week, he took off 10 times. Then Maye had seven rushing attempts in a close loss to the Steelers. In the Week 4 blowout victory over the Panthers, Maye ran just three times.
The thesis here is that Maye has shown to take more risks when the stakes are higher: the divisional win versus Miami needed to avoid an 0-2 start and the battle with fellow AFC playoff hopeful Pittsburgh. More risks will mean more rushing attempts for Maye rather than him throwing the ball away to avoid contact.
🏈 Bet: Over 29.5 rushing yards
For the same reasons above, I also like Maye to go over 29.5 rushing yards. He's done so in his two games with seven-plus rushing attempts, and the Bills give up the second-most rushing yards per game (164.3).
🏈 Bet: Over 4.5 receptions
Revenge game for Diggs? The former Bill has been targeted at least five times in three games this season, and he's coming off his best outing as a Patriot. He caught six passes for 101 yards last week. Perhaps that's a sign he's returning to his old form after tearing his ACL last year. If the Patriots have to push the pace to keep up with the Bills, Maye will drop back to pass often, setting up Diggs for a heavy workload.
🏈 Bet: Over 2.5 receptions
James Cook has caught at least three passes in three games this year. The only matchup in which he didn't was the Bills' 30-10 victory over the Jets, where he dominated on the ground instead. Cook is becoming a reliable check-down option for Allen, even though the quarterback likes to take off and run. At plus-money, the value on this wager is too good to ignore.
NFL news editor Brenden Deeg will provide touchdown scorer props all season long.
🏈 Bet: Anytime TD (+225)
We've taken Kincaid in back-to-back weeks, so why stop now when he's hit both times? The 25-year-old still has great odds despite leading all Buffalo pass-catchers in touchdowns, and this matchup is another solid opportunity for him. The Patriots' defense ranks 24th in targets and 25th in receiving yards allowed to opposing tight ends this season.
🏈 Bet: Anytime TD (+425)
We'll take a swing on a long-shot bet here, as these odds are too high for a quarterback who's already run for two touchdowns this season. Maye is the Patriots' second-leading rusher heading into Week 5, and the Bills have allowed the most rushing yards to opposing signal-callers this season.
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