NFL playoff odds: Steelers, Saints won't return to postseason in 2021
The 2021 NFL season is more than two months away, but with the bulk of the offseason behind us, it's not too early to attack values in the futures market. One of the best bets is on the playoff field, which is notoriously volatile from year to year.
Here are the odds for each team to make or miss the playoffs, along with a pair of best bets for each:
| TEAM | MAKE | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -1000 | +700 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -750 | +525 |
| Buffalo Bills | -400 | +330 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -300 | +250 |
| Cleveland Browns | -230 | +190 |
| Los Angeles Rams | -185 | +165 |
| San Francisco 49ers | -180 | +160 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -175 | +155 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -160 | +140 |
| Tennessee Titans | -140 | +120 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -115 | -105 |
| New Orleans Saints | +120 | -140 |
| Miami Dolphins | +130 | -150 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +130 | -150 |
| New England Patriots | +135 | -155 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +140 | -160 |
| Denver Broncos | +150 | -170 |
| Washington Football Team | +150 | -170 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +165 | -185 |
| Chicago Bears | +185 | -225 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +210 | -250 |
| New York Giants | +210 | -250 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +240 | -280 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +260 | -320 |
| Carolina Panthers | +280 | -340 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +330 | -400 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +340 | -420 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +450 | -600 |
| New York Jets | +450 | -600 |
| Detroit Lions | +650 | -950 |
| Houston Texans | +750 | -1100 |
Best bets to make playoffs
Los Angeles Rams (-185)
The Rams went 12 consecutive seasons without a playoff berth - or even a winning record - before hiring Sean McVay in 2017. But they've averaged 10.8 wins per season since then and made the playoffs in three of four years, finishing one game back of the field in 2019.
All three of those playoff trips came with Jared Goff at the helm, including last year's appearance following a 10-win campaign. The Rams will soon trot out a different former top pick in Matthew Stafford, whose pure arm talent and feel for the game should help McVay's offense reach new heights. If Stafford stays healthy, this team is making the playoffs.
Denver Broncos (+150)
The Broncos have the sixth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl (+1200), yet they're clear underdogs to make the playoffs. What gives? Yes, the upside of a potential Aaron Rodgers deal is driving the inflated Super Bowl odds, but that should be reflected here, too.
Even if Rodgers stays with the Packers, there's enough on this Denver roster to get excited about. The Broncos ranked 11th in yards allowed per drive in 2020 but struggled to force turnovers, an area the team clearly addressed in free agency. If Teddy Bridgewater can help stabilize a talented but inefficient offense, this group could easily steal a wild-card spot - and that's without considering a Rodgers trade.
Best bets to miss playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers (-185)
The Steelers marched to an 11-0 start in 2020 thanks to an easy schedule and some breaks regarding opponents' health. Then they lost five of their last six games, including a blowout playoff loss that looked like the potential end of the Ben Roethlisberger era.
But Big Ben is back after enduring one of the least efficient seasons of his career - despite leading all QBs with a career-low sack rate (2.1%) behind the most effective pass-blocking unit in the NFL. The Steelers, meanwhile, have said goodbye to four of last season's five starting linemen after releasing Pro Bowl guard David DeCastro on Thursday.
Pittsburgh will have one of the league's tougher schedules this season after a last year's cupcake slate, and it's less equipped to handle it. Fade, fade, fade.
New Orleans Saints (-140)
After four consecutive seasons of 11 wins or more, the Saints are almost certain to take a step back in 2021 following Drew Brees' retirement. In his absence, New Orleans will turn to ... Jameis Winston? Taysom Hill? Ian Book?
None of the quarterbacks on the Saints' roster have proven themselves capable NFL starters. Though the team has won without Brees in recent years, its defense carried the torch; that will be a tougher ask in 2021 after the unit lost multiple key starters in the offseason.
The Saints aren't winning this division barring a Buccaneers collapse, and it'll likely take 10 wins to snag a wild-card spot in the NFC. Good luck getting that from this group, regardless of who's under center.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.