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Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Sunday night.
The Saints have performed well after losses in the Sean Payton era, but this doesn't look like the spot to expect a bounce-back performance.
After Monday's outright loss as a home favorite against the Raiders, New Orleans is now 4-9 against the spread in its last 13 games as home chalk, with five losses straight up. The team is also 7-12-2 ATS under Payton when giving three points or fewer as a home favorite, including five consecutive outright losses in that spot.
Aaron Rodgers has had his struggles in prime time, posting a 4-9 ATS record over the last two seasons. But this spot is too good to ignore. Underdogs coming off a 21-point win or better - as Green Bay is this week - are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against opponents coming off a loss.
The over is also set up nicely in this particular matchup. Rodgers is 4-0 to the over in starts against the Saints, and he's 19-8 to the over when catching three or points or fewer as an underdog, including a remarkable 12-1 in that spot since his last meeting with New Orleans.
Jared Cook over 49.5 receiving yards
We cashed on Cook's touchdown prop a week ago, and this time we're betting high on his yardage total against his former team. The Packers have struggled to defend tight ends dating back to last season, and they let Lions tight end T.J. Hockenson get free last week for a team-high 62 yards.
Las Vegas held Cook mostly in check in Week 2, but he had reached 50 yards in six of his previous seven games and still saw five targets Monday; he'd averaged five catches for 84.5 yards in his previous four games getting at least five targets. Expect a similar performance against this Green Bay pass defense.
Aaron Rodgers over 22.5 completions
Given the strength of the Saints' run defense and top defensive backs, the best way to attack their defense is through the short-to-intermediate passing game. Derek Carr provided a perfect blueprint Monday, becoming the seventh quarterback to complete at least 23 passes against New Orleans in its last nine regular-season games.
Rodgers completed just 18 passes in last week's blowout win over Detroit, but he had averaged 28.3 completions in his previous three games and has topped this mark in all four career starts against the Saints.
Bettors can sometimes be too quick to react to early-season results, especially when it comes to matchups between similarly ranked teams. This isn't one of those spots. Drew Brees' play is concerning through two weeks, and the Saints' offense isn't built to survive a poor Brees performance without Michael Thomas on the field.
The Raiders picked New Orleans' defense apart in the second half of their contest, and the Packers are primed to do the same after two scorching performances from their offense. Unless Brees turns back the clock, this game is Green Bay's to lose.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.