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After two surprising performances to start the season, the Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 48) are in a rare spot as home favorites against the Miami Dolphins in an intrastate showdown between frisky rebuilding squads.
Here are our favorite trends, props, and bets for Thursday night's contest.
It's been a while since Jacksonville was favored in any game, but it's not a great sign for bettors. The Jaguars are 14-23-1 against the spread as home chalk since 2008 and own a 2-5 ATS mark in their last seven.
This is also a unique spot for the Dolphins, who've gotten three points or fewer as road underdogs just once since the 2015 season. They won that game outright and have gone 13-4 ATS in this spot since 2008, though they're just 7-15 ATS overall in their last 22 games as road underdogs.
The night slot is troublesome for both squads. The Jaguars are 4-10 ATS in prime time since 2008, while the Dolphins are 4-13-1 ATS under the lights since 2010. It's been a rough spot for Miami quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, too: He's 4-9-1 ATS in prime time with an average scoring margin of -7.57 points for his side.
Gardner Minshew over 262.5 passing yards (-112)
A year after boasting the worst pass defense in the league, the Dolphins have invested as much in their secondary as any team. It hasn't worked. Bills quarterback Josh Allen threw for a career-high 417 yards last week against Miami, which once again ranks dead last in PFF's coverage grade through two games.
Minshew has looked sharp this year, going 19-for-20 for 173 yards in Week 1 before throwing for 339 yards last week on the road against the Titans. If Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden lets his QB loose again this week - a smart move against Miami's reeling defensive backs - Minshew won't have any issue topping this total.
Myles Gaskin under 39.5 rushing yards (-112)
It's easy to get excited about Gaskin, who's turned 16 carries into 86 yards through two weeks. Don't get carried away, though. The Dolphins back has earned most of his yardage between the tackles, and he's not likely to find those same holes against the Jaguars' front.
Jacksonville boasts a top-10 run defense per DVOA and has kept downhill runners in check through two games. The Jaguars held Derrick Henry to 3.4 yards per rush in Week 2 and limited Colts back Jonathan Taylor to nine carries for 22 yards in Week 1. Gaskin is worse than both of those backs and shouldn't get enough opportunities Thursday to reach 40 yards.
Anyone who's watched Jacksonville this year can tell there's something there worth betting. Sharps devoured this team last week and were rewarded, yet oddsmakers are still rating the Jaguars on par with a substandard Dolphins squad that struggles on the road and hasn't shown much upside.
Jacksonville went toe to toe with the Colts and Titans in consecutive weeks and now faces a favorable matchup against Miami's struggling secondary. Bet the better team at home.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.