10 Elite to Avoid in Fantasy Baseball

Here's a look at 10 players currently being drafted with a top-50 pick who owners should be avoiding in 2016. Avoiding doesn't necessarily mean scratching these players off your draft board; rather that they shouldn't be drafted as high as their current ADPs indicate.

Taking them even a round or two later can represent much better value, and make the difference in overall team quality.

SS Carlos Correa, Houston Astros

Warning Signs: 24% HR/FB (8th among hitters with at least 400 PA)

Correa is the poster boy for the definition of "avoid" being used here. Any owner in a league of any size coming out of the draft with Correa on their roster should be thrilled - but the price to be that guy should cause hesitation.

The sophomore shortstop seems like a fairly safe bet for 20-plus steals in 2016, after he swiped 14 in just 99 games last summer. The biggest warning sign is his home run to fly ball ratio which led to a staggering 22 home runs in less than two-thirds of a season.

He'll hit in the heart of a dangerous Astros lineup, and he represents the best of a thin position. Even still, he should be selected after a few of the more proven names going behind him.

Current ADP: 7
Adjusted ADP: 10-15

C/OF Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs

Warning Signs: Can't play defense

Schwarber is slated as the everyday left fielder for the Cubs, but few players looked as bad as he did in that role last season.

Schwarber posted a UZR/150 of -4.1 in left field in 2015, ranking 90th out of 141 players who played at least 250 innings in the position.

His bat is for real, but the threat of his defense gluing him to the bench - or sending him back to Triple-A - can't be ignored.

Current ADP: 40
Adjusted ADP: 55-60

OF Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners

Warning Signs: ISO rising at age 35

Now 35 years old, Cruz has seen his home run totals, slugging percentage and ISO rise in each of the past three seasons following a 50-game suspension in 2010 for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal.

This despite moving from the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington (Texas) and Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore) to the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field (Seattle). It'll be tough for Cruz to continue this power resurgence at his age, representing too much risk at his current draft position.

Current ADP: 38
Adjusted ADP: 65-70

SP Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks

Warning Signs: xFIP twice as high as ERA

His inflated xFIP side, Greinke moves from the 92-70 Los Angeles Dodgers to a Diamondbacks team that went 79-83 a season ago. While they've retooled both their rotation and their lineup, Greinke left a much more desirable situation in L.A., at least from a fantasy perspective.

Current ADP: 26
Adjusted ADP: 35-40

OF Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals

Warning Signs: 16 home runs (nearly doubled career total)

Cain hit 16 home runs in 604 plate appearances last season, after hitting a total of 17 HR in his first 1,369 PA. He stole 28 bases for the second consecutive season, but 41- and 59-point jumps from his career averages in ISO and SLG%, respectively, may be untrustworthy.

Current ADP: 50
Adjusted ADP: 70-75

1B Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Warning Signs: Reds continue to sell

After going 64-98 last season, the Reds continued selling everything they could this offseason, dealing RP Aroldis Chapman and 3B Todd Frazier. OF Jay Bruce and 2B Brandon Phillips are still rumored to be on the move sooner rather than later.

With Votto refusing to leave Cincinnati, there's no telling who will be left to join him by the end of 2016.

Current ADP: 30
Adjusted ADP: 40-45

2B Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins

Warning Signs: .383 BABIP

A healthy season from OF Giancarlo Stanton would mean more runs scored for Gordon, but limited RBI opportunities and non-existent power make stolen bases his one elite fantasy contribution. His .333 batting average and .359 OBP from last season will likely trend down toward his career marks of .293 and .328, respectively, in 2016.

Current ADP: 20
Adjusted ADP: 40-45

OF Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets

Warning Signs: Hit 22 of 35 home runs in 70 second-half games

Cespedes enjoyed a rarely seen second-half power surge. Additionally, his batting average dropped 14 points in the second half of the season. It's an even more bizarre phenomenon considering Citi Field in New York was considered the league's 28th-most hitter-friendly park in 2015 and the 17th-most favorable to home run hitters.

Current ADP: 41
Adjusted ADP: 55-60

OF J.D. Martinez, Detroit Tigers

Warning Signs: 20.8% HR/FB

Finally receiving everyday playing time in 2015, Martinez enjoyed a career season with 38 home runs and 102 RBIs. The runs batted in should be there again in 2016, as he's expected to hit fourth or fifth in the Tigers' order, but the home runs may shrink after posting a .253 ISO in 2015. His HR/FB ratio was significantly higher than his career 16.1% average.

Current ADP: 36
Adjusted ADP: 60-65

OF Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

Warning Signs: Career-high 43 steals may be unrepeatable

While it's fair to consider Blackmon a consistent contributor in the stolen base category, his 43 last season - up from 28 in 2014 - may be tough to repeat. He's likely to finish with around 20 stolen bases, and he'll score between 80 and 90 runs while atop the Rockies' lineup.

If the steals aren't repeated, then he won't be an elite contributor in any one category - something required of players at this draft position.

Current ADP: 33
Adjusted ADP: 45-50