Bet or Bail MVP Edition: Can Embiid catch Jokic?

The MVP race has been contentious the last couple of seasons, to say the least. And Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, the two superstars at the center of that debate, are in the mix again.

Betting on the MVP is a challenging task. It's not who you think should win it; it's who you think voters will select. How much does team success matter? How much do advanced analytics matter? Do storylines and narratives shape voters' decisions?

It's a four-horse race for this year's MVP award about halfway around the track. In this edition of Bet or Bail, we assess all four players and which are worth bailing or betting on.

Could a ball-dominant guard finally take back the MVP award (James Harden was the last guard to win in 2018) or will the resurgence of the dominant big continue?

NBA MVP odds

Nikola Jokic

The argument in favor of Jokic is that Denver could be the NBA's worst team without the Serbian superhero. With him, the Nuggets are - as the banner hanging in Ball Arena indicates - NBA champions.

His impact can be illustrated through various statistics, but one tells the entire story: on/off-court metrics, which evaluate how good a team is with a player on the court versus on the bench.

The Nuggets have a plus-11.2 net rating with Jokic in the game and a minus-7.6 net rating when he's not. A plus-11.2 net rating is better than the league-leading Celtics at plus-9.8, while minus-7.6 would be the sixth-worst.

That's an 18.8 swing in net rating. For comparison, Embiid's on/off-court difference is 8.6, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's is 10.

Yes, Jokic is the best passing big who's ever lived. Yes, he has deceptive footwork and a soft touch. And yes, he's an underrated defender with an atypical frame for a basketball player. But what separates Jokic isn't his comparative lack of athleticism - it's how effective he is with the ball while barely dribbling it.

Jokic ranks 28th in usage rate, while the other three MVP favorites are in the top six. He's incredibly efficient with his touches and leads the league in field-goal percentage on drives.

Whenever Jokic gets an elbow or paint touch, the other four Nuggets players cut and drift, hoping and expecting Jokic will deliver a precise pass in the perfect location. In football, an adage states that great quarterbacks can throw their receivers open; Jokic often passes his teammates open.

His raw numbers are nothing extraordinary. But his efficiency stats and impact on winning tell the story. While Jokic's game may not be as aesthetically pleasing as that of some other candidates, it's impossible not to marvel at the intellect and fluidity of his play.

Jokic, my preseason pick to be MVP at +425, has a case to win every season. But there's some greatness fatigue kicking in - similar to how LeBron James didn't win every year in the 2010s - and thus no value in taking him as a heavy favorite.

Verdict: Bail

Luka Doncic

Earlier this season, I outlined Doncic's impact on his teammates and how his brilliance elevates everyone around him.

Doncic has finished in the top 10 in MVP voting the last three seasons. This will likely be his best result on the ballot, but the same thing that plagued his past campaigns remains an issue: His team doesn't win enough.

There are no official requirements for wins, but 23 of the last 24 MVPs played on teams that earned a top-three seed in their respective conference. The Mavericks are currently the 6-seed and four games back of the 3-seed. Dallas has been dealing with injuries over the last few weeks, preventing Doncic and Kyrie Irving - who's back to playing at an All-NBA level - from sharing the floor often.

Doncic is second in the league in scoring and third in assists. He also has the NBA's second-highest usage rate, indicating his importance to the Mavs' operation.

This award is about narrative as much as it's about stats. Doncic can do two things to get an inside track on MVP honors. First, Dallas needs to win more games. Second, the Mavericks need to at least host a first-round playoff series. They have an upper-echelon offense and a surprisingly average defense. If they stay healthy, they've got a chance.

Doncic also needs more eye-popping performances in prime-time moments, similar to his 50-point Christmas Day outing against the Suns. Following that contest, Doncic's odds shortened dramatically. He's absolutely capable of those kinds of games, but capturing his first MVP is an uphill battle.

Verdict: Bail

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Gilgeous-Alexander entered this season with the eighth-best MVP odds at +1800. He was coming off a superstar-caliber year for the Thunder, who shocked many but failed to make the playoffs.

The Thunder are again the surprise of the NBA, sitting second in the West with the league's second-youngest roster.

Gilgeous-Alexander's 2022-23 campaign wasn't a fluke; it was the beginning of a rocket launch. He's averaging 31 points on 55% shooting from the field.

Shaquille O'Neal said Tuesday that he'd take Gilgeous-Alexander on his team over Doncic. That may sound outlandish, but the MVP odds agree with Shaq - at least for this season.

The advanced analytics favor the Thunder superstar. Gilgeous-Alexander's most frequent play types are typical of any guard: isolation, pick-and-roll, and transition. It's his efficiency on those plays that's atypical.

He scores 1.21 points per possession on isolations, tied for the best mark with Kawhi Leonard among players who record at least three isolation possessions per game, according to NBA Advanced Stats. Gilgeous-Alexander's 1.09 points per possession as the pick-and-roll ball-handler put him third - behind Tyrese Haliburton and Terry Rozier - among players who use the play at least five times per contest. And in transition, SGA scores 1.31 points per possession, second to only Donovan Mitchell among players with more than five transition possessions per game.

No guard in the league is as efficient and dominant on virtually every play type. Gilgeous-Alexander isn't a great 3-point shooter, but he gets to his spots off the dribble as well as anyone.

He's on his way to his second consecutive All-NBA first-team selection and has a case as the league MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander's time will come, but it's not this season.

Verdict: Bail

Joel Embiid

Remember the GameStop stock fiasco in 2021 that saw the price climb and then fall faster than De'Aaron Fox pushes the ball past half court?

Embiid's MVP stock has followed a similar trajectory through the first half of the season, only it's played out over a few months, not days.

Embiid's MVP movement

Fresh off of winning his first MVP for the 2022-23 season - an award he and the Sixers organization actively campaigned for - oddsmakers didn't buy that voters would select Embiid for a second consecutive season, especially with Jokic coming off of a dominant championship run.

Embiid had the fifth-best odds entering the season. His consistent 30-point double-doubles didn't garner much attention through the first few weeks (how dominant is a player when that's considered a pedestrian night?), and his odds lengthened.

But then the reigning MVP went on a historic run. Embiid averaged 40.2 points per game in nine games in December. He had two 50-plus-point performances and, more importantly, the Sixers went 8-1 during that stretch.

After his 51-point night against the Timberwolves - one of the league's best defenses - Embiid leapfrogged Jokic and became the MVP favorite at +150.

Then ankle and knee injuries derailed his momentum. In ESPN's late December straw poll, Embiid received the overwhelming majority of the votes. He's since missed seven of the last 12 games.

But that was before Tuesday, when Embiid went head to head with current favorite and perceived rival Jokic. Embiid dominated the matchup, scoring 41 points and dishing out 10 assists in a narrow Sixers win. It was Embiid's second 41-point outing in as many nights. Jokic scored 25 points and grabbed 19 boards, but Embiid was more dominant.

His odds shortened to +300 following the game, and although advanced stats have favored Jokic in the past, some are drifting toward Embiid. The 76ers star leads the NBA in player impact estimate, an evaluation tool designed to quantify a player's contributions to winning. Jokic, Doncic, and Gilgeous-Alexander unsurprisingly round out the top four.

The big question about Embiid is whether he'll be eligible for the award, not whether he deserves it. This season, the league instituted a rule requiring any award winner to play at least 65 games. Embiid has already missed 10, meaning he can't sit for more than seven games the rest of the season if he wants to qualify. With an MVP already secured and the Sixers hoping to finally advance past the second round, there's no reason for Embiid to be on the floor when he's not fully healthy.

As long as he is healthy, however, Embiid will play. This is as much of a bet on his health as his dominance. But it's a wager worth making.

Verdict: Bet +300

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.