CFB Week 8 big games: Seeing red for 4 high-leverage conference matchups

Oregon and Washington played the game of the year so far this season. You either pushed on -3 or got the best of the number when the Huskies were -2.5. If you invested in Washington to make the College Football Playoff, or for Michael Penix to win the Heisman Trophy, you're feeling pretty good about those tickets at the moment.

Both Washington and Oregon passed the eye test as CFP-level teams and may be headed for a rematch in the Pac-12 title game. They're favored by multiple touchdowns this week, so their contests should be relatively stress-free as they watch other contenders - including two top-10 Big Ten programs - battle it out for resume-building wins.

No. 7 Penn State @ No. 3 Ohio State (-4, 45.5)

James Franklin will cover a spread for you against an inferior opponent through hell or high water. That's not the situation here, though, as the point spread might be built on Nittany Lions blowouts.

Ohio State found itself in a second tight contest Oct. 7 when the team struggled early against Maryland. That came one game after the Buckeyes nipped Notre Dame. However, being battle-tested matters at this time of year. Penn State's toughest test was a road game at Illinois.

We'll let this line trickle down closer to -3 if it wants to since Ohio State's home-field advantage should account for more than the four points it's giving now. There's no tangible proof that these teams are equal since the Buckeyes have recorded more net yards per play despite having faced a stronger schedule.

Pick: Ohio State (-4)

No. 17 Tennessee @ No. 11 Alabama (-8, 48.5)

Tennessee and Alabama are the biggest beneficiaries of this week's announcement that Georgia's best player, Brock Bowers, has no timetable for a return. The Vols host Georgia on Nov. 18, so a win here and against the Bulldogs should be enough for a ticket to the SEC Championship.

However, the Crimson Tide are big favorites here. Alabama, which almost definitely makes it to Atlanta with a win this week, is most likely to win the SEC title game assuming Bowers' absence hurts the Bulldogs. The Crimson Tide's current odds of +200 project them to be +6.5 in a neutral-site championship game, so there's value in grabbing that number now. A one-loss Alabama would then be hard to leave out of the CFP. At +450 to make the playoff, that's also worth a speculative play.

As for this game, the handicap is simple. Joe Milton isn't accurate enough to keep Tennessee close on the road. The Vols did well to win and cover at home against Texas A&M, but this is the same group that got rolled at Florida. They won't run amok against the Tide.

Pick: Alabama (-8)

No. 16 Duke @ No. 4 Florida State (-14, 48.5)

This line should be -20 based on preseason ratings.

Duke was -9.5 at home to Clemson, which went to the wire with the Seminoles. Yet the Blue Devils won the game outright. Then, the Blue Devils' rating went back to their preseason status after Riley Leonard got hurt at the end of a near-upset of a quality Notre Dame team. But the Blue Devils still beat NC State comfortably with freshman Henry Belin starting despite completing only four passes.

It seems Leonard will be healthy enough to play versus Florida State. If that's the case, this line makes sense relative to market ratings. What it doesn't factor in is that the Seminoles' defense is much worse than most realize via standard-down success rates, especially relative to the Blue Devils.

Pick: Duke (+14)

No. 14 Utah @ No. 18 USC (-7, 56.5)

This game doesn't have as much luster after Notre Dame blew out USC, but the Trojans haven't taken a conference loss, and Utah's still ranked despite a loss at Oregon State.

If you think USC has been appropriately rated this whole time, you can join those who've bet the Trojans up from -4 to -7. However, we'll wait to see if this can pass through the key number of +7. At which point, backing Kyle Whittingham at over a touchdown is the play. Nothing on the field has shown that a well-coached Utah team won't be able to give Caleb Williams trouble. The Utes' offense is still quite shaky as it continues to wait for Cam Rising's return, but it's not so bad that it can't score on USC.

Pick: Utah (+7, wait to see if +7.5 comes available)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.