CFB Week 7 best bets: Playing the market in the Saturday 7

Another Saturday, another painful bad beat to get things started. Missouri held a two-touchdown lead at one point, but covering came down to this:

So, a 4-3 day turned into 3-4, as best bets continue to lag behind their big brother - the Big Games of the week - and that's before mentioning box scores that suggest Central Michigan and California deserved better last week.

Arkansas @ No.11 Alabama (-20, 47.5)

Now that the panic about Alabama's alleged demise has subsided, it's back up to the same rating it had before the season started. However, the Tide are being asked to win big after avoiding a killer loss last week.

Meanwhile, Arkansas's rating in the market has dipped after losing four straight. Two defeats came in rabid environments at LSU and Ole Miss, but the Razorbacks stuck with their opponent in all four losses, and that's all we're asking them to do here.

Pick: Arkansas (+20)

Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech (-1, 48.5)

With over 130 teams in the FBS, there's a lot to keep track of. Things like "Wake Forest is actually bad" can fall through the cracks. Wins over Vanderbilt, Elon, and Old Dominion don't warrant excitement, so covering at Clemson last week might be what's most impressive about the Demon Deacons' resume.

Meanwhile, the Hokies may be flying under the radar after being blown out at Florida State, but that's a heavier weight class than Virginia Tech should be expected to handle. Back at Lane Stadium, with Kyron Drones the clear-cut starting quarterback, the Hokies should be giving a field goal, and we're giving up less than that.

Pick: Virginia Tech (-1)

Texas A&M @ Tennessee (-3, 55.5)

Texas A&M had its shot last week. The Aggies missed, as they often do.

The market didn't think QB Max Johnson was a downgrade from Conner Weigman in tough situations. He is.

Now the Aggies go on the road to Neyland Stadium to face the Volunteers, who are better in both offensive standard down success rate (SDSR) and defensive SDSR. A line of only -3 at Tennessee suggests the Aggies are the better team, which isn't true.

Pick: Tennessee (-3)

Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan (+8.5, 44.5)

Rarely do we not care who starts at QB, but that's the case with Western Michigan. Last week, Hayden Wolff relieved Jack Salopek, who was in for Trey Bourguet, and Wolff moved the ball up and down the field on Mississippi State.

Any one of them is fine against Miami, which is probably favored by over a touchdown because of a win at Cincinnati (in which it gave up over 500 yards) and two blowouts of the worst MAC teams. The Mustangs should be able to stay in touch in only their second FBS home game this season (their first was a two-touchdown win over similarly rated Ball State).

Pick: Western Michigan (+8.5)

No. 14 Louisville @ Pittsburgh (+7.5, 44.5)

Any time you can take a team that's been nothing but bad and that also just moved its veteran starting QB to tight end, you do it. However, Pittsburgh's early season struggles against teams like Cincinnati, West Virginia, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech - who've all outperformed their preseason expectations - don't look quite as bad now. The Panthers' rating has plummeted, but a bye week should lead to their best effort of the year, as this is a tough spot for Louisville, who must get up for a road game after a party win over Notre Dame.

Pick: Pittsburgh (+7.5)

North Carolina State @ No. 17 Duke (-3.5, 45.5)

I have this game lined at over a touchdown with a healthy QB Riley Leonard for Duke, but he's nursing an ankle injury. If he can't go, redshirt freshman Henry Belin IV will take over.

Leonard's headed for the NFL draft after this season, so 6-3 dual-threat Belin is the Blue Devils' future. Raw but talented, and with two weeks of first-team reps, Mike Elko and his staff may have Belin ready enough to succeed against a North Carolina State defense that allowed over 400 yards to Marshall at home. Belin may even be better than the Wolfpack's new starter MJ Morris, who threw three interceptions last week and could be confused by Elko's defense.

Pick: Duke (-3.5)

Boise State @ Colorado State (+7.5, 60.5)

Are we getting 7.5 points with the better team at home?

It's kind of a crazy question, but let's take a look at a pair of advanced metrics on each side of the ball (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average and Standard Down Success Rate):

Boise State started the season as the highest-rated team in the Mountain West, while Colorado State was rated near the bottom. The Broncos have stayed where they are despite a pair of Power 5 losses and tight wins over unimpressive San Diego State and San Jose State at home.

Blowing a 17-0 lead at Utah State last week was troubling for CSU, but it may be why we're getting more than a touchdown in a situation where the Rams can pull the upset - like they nearly did against Colorado the last time anyone paid attention to them.

Pick: Colorado State (+7.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.