CFB Week 7 big games: Pac-12 showdowns, Miami's bounce back

The college football betting community didn't want anything to do with Georgia or Alabama last week.

Feel free to read that sentence again if need be, but it's true. In the days after we looked at the big games for Week 6, money came in on Texas A&M, taking the Crimson Tide from -3.5 down to pick'em before some late buyback on Bama. Meanwhile, very few seemed interested in Georgia -14.5 at home against Kentucky - a matchup lined at -22.5, -21.5, -17, and -23.5 the last four seasons.

We'll have to wait a week or two (or three?) for another big SEC matchup, but that doesn't mean the big-game cupboard is bare this week, far from it.

No. 8 Oregon @ No. 7 Washington (-3, 67.5)

Well, here we are. When you back any team to make the College Football Playoff or someone to win the Heisman Trophy, the team has to pile up wins, and the player has to accumulate stats, but games like this are critical. This is the first game that Oregon's and Washington's respective seasons hinge on. The winner gets an inside track to the Pac-12 title game, a huge boost in their CFP candidacy, and either Bo Nix or Michael Penix might be the clear-cut favorite for the Heisman.

The market has been quicker to upgrade Washington on a week-to-week basis because its wins have come against higher-thought-of teams than Oregon - which required something of a magic trick to get by Texas Tech. Even giving the Ducks more credit for covering every game this season, this line is still a shade too low, as evidenced by it moving from -2 to -3.

The Huskies walked into Autzen Stadium and beat Oregon last year, as Penix threw for over 400 yards and Washington somehow withstood 300-plus rushing yards from the Ducks. If it were that easy to get revenge back in Seattle, more teams would do it.

Pick: Washington (-3)

No. 25 Miami @ No. 12 North Carolina (-3.5, 57.5)

The first reason to not like Miami is that its head coach blew up social media late on Saturday when he refused to go into victory formation, and it burned the Hurricanes in the most heinous fashion:

With their undefeated record up in smoke, the bigger issue was that it took Mario Cristobal's group as long as it did to get into a position to put away Georgia Tech.

Those negatives are largely narrative-based. The season isn't over for Miami, and a road win over North Carolina would put them right back on track for the ACC title game, with other resume-building games against Clemson and Florida State upcoming. College athletes tend to have short memories, and if they can flush their disappointment, Miami's just as talented as the Tar Heels.

The biggest reason to back the Canes is that Saturday's fiasco seems to have led to this line being over the key number of -3. From a market ratings perspective, I would've expected North Carolina to be a -2 favorite. Instead, we're getting over a field goal, so we'll bite the bullet in hopes that Miami channels its anger in Chapel Hill.

Pick: Miami (+3.5)

No. 10 USC @ No. 21 Notre Dame (-2.5, 61.5)

I was dying to bet Notre Dame as an underdog in this game. In "Game of the Year" lines offered in the summer, USC was a -1 favorite. The Trojans haven't lost, and Caleb Williams continues to be awesome. Notre Dame now has two losses, and its offense has struggled. So why has this line crossed pick'em, making the Irish short favorites?

Because the Trojans' defense is that bad. Hopes of improvement from a group that cost Southern Cal a CFP bid last year have largely been dashed. This is USC's biggest challenge yet, facing veteran quarterback Sam Hartman in South Bend. However, I'm not in the business of fading Williams as an underdog.

The only play here is to wait and see if the market pushes the line out to a flat +3 and take the Trojans. Otherwise, there should be live-betting opportunities to get points with either side in what should be another thriller.

Pick: Pass but targeting USC +3

No. 18 UCLA @ No. 15 Oregon State (-3.5, 54.5)

They say defense travels, and UCLA appears to have it, having crushed Washington State last week. However, all that did was confirm that we should be willing to lay points with the home team in matchups between otherwise equal squads out west.

The problem for UCLA is there's only a handful of teams with a better offensive success rate on standard downs than Oregon State, and the Beavers' offense has traveled to Berkeley and the Palouse, marching up and down the field. Even 358 yards against the Utah defense feels like 400-plus.

Pick: Oregon State (Wait for -3 but take -3.5 by kickoff)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.