CFB Week 6 best bets: Turning the page to October

*Takes deep breath*

That was rough.

An unprecedentedly unfortunate Week 5 started by nailing the handicap between Penn State and Northwestern, right down to the part about James Franklin being desperate for attention.

Mix in a torn ACL for Akron's DJ Irons just before an overtime loss, and a bad day gets worse.

Betting is about withstanding variance. Defensive and special teams touchdowns are supposed to even out, and throughout hundreds of coin flips, sometimes there'll be a run of tails. All we can do is try to make valuable plays and hope for a heads streak to get us back closer to our 55% target, along with our big-game betting, which has come along nicely.

No. 23 LSU @ No. 21 Missouri (+5, 64.5)

Don't look now, but Missouri might be good. With over 130 teams to follow, a bottom-tier SEC team can fall under the radar even at 5-0. But with Brady Cook, well, cookin' - especially when targeting Luther Burden - Mizzou can take advantage of LSU's terrible pass defense. Kicking off at noon a week after LSU's season-long ambitions were effectively wiped out at Ole Miss will help.

Pick: Missouri (+5.5)

Central Michigan @ Buffalo (+3, 52.5)

Even without Irons' injury, historians will look back at Buffalo's road win at Akron last week with bafflement.

Getting 254 total yards on 70 plays isn't awe-inspiring, and I refuse to bump the Bulls' rating up for that. A team that gave up between 38 and 55 points in an 0-4 start should go back to its losing ways this week against dark horse MAC contender Central Michigan. The Chippewas have managed wins at South Alabama and against Eastern Michigan with backup quarterback Jase Bauer, allowing them to add Bert Emanuel Jr. for an explosive offensive wrinkle.

Pick: Central Michigan (-3)

Marshall @ North Carolina State (-6.5, 44.5)

Marshall's resume is built on a home win over Virginia Tech in which Rasheen Ali ran for 174 yards. The Hokies' defense is 110th in EPA/play against the run.

North Carolina State lost 13-10 to Louisville last Friday, but it gave up just 20 rush yards on 27 carries. Life won't be as easy for the Thundering Herd. It should be easier for Brennan Armstrong and the Wolfpack since Marshall's success-rate metrics on both sides of the ball are built against lesser competition. Marshall shouldn't be live to win a road game against an ACC opponent.

Pick: North Carolina State (-6.5)

Vanderbilt @ Florida (-19, 52.5)

In a slump? Why not turn to the most reliable fade in college football?

Vanderbilt is 0-for-6 against the spread this season and has no confident option at quarterback between AJ Swann and Ken Seals, but the market hasn't dropped its rating significantly. That's not ideal for a trip to The Swamp to take on a Florida team that got run over by Kentucky. An ornery group in Gainesville - which is capable of the type of big win it had against Tennessee - should be into this one for 60 minutes. That's the key to covering a big number.

Pick: Florida (-19)

Texas Tech @ Baylor (+1, 60.5)

Full disclosure - I don't understand the box score from Texas Tech's 49-28 win over Houston. The Red Raiders were outgained, and the Cougars had just one turnover - on fourth down. Then you get deeper and see that Tech scored on a kick return and a blocked punt. Those are two things you can't rely on week-to-week. Now Tyler Shough's replacement, Behren Morton, goes on the road to take on Baylor, which has its starting quarterback back and is coming off an epic comeback to bring it hope at 1-1 in the conference.

Pick: Baylor (+1)

No. 15 Oregon State @ California (+9.5, 51.5)

If you go beyond the scoreboard, California's 59-32 loss to Washington two weeks ago was more even than it looked, with the Huskies winning the yardage 529-502. A similar case could be made for Cal's loss to Auburn in Week 2. If we're looking for value, one of the places you'll find it is the underrating of a team based on the scoreboard versus a per-play basis.

Oregon State's running game should find some resistance against the Bears, who are ninth in the country in EPA/play against the rush. Asking DJ Uiagalelei to win by two scores on the road is too much for a game with a spread that should be under a touchdown.

Pick: California (+9.5)

Arizona @ No. 9 USC (-22, 72.5)

Arizona's Jayden de Laura couldn't play against Washington last week. With freshman Noah Fifita starting, it was reasonable to take a wait-and-see approach. He was good against a Huskies defense that, so far, has similar metrics to USC.

More importantly, the Wildcats' defense has been pretty strong this season - a decent leap from last year when they had the worst standard down success rate in the FBS. The defense has been better than Arizona State's and Colorado's - the Trojans were unable to cover a big spread against either over the last two weeks. Expect another shootout similar to their 45-37 duel in the desert last season.

Pick: Arizona (+22)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.