CFB Week 5 best bets: Personnel changes create value in the Saturday 7

The calendar is turning to October, but not before one last September Saturday in college football. While we would've preferred to start the season blazing hot, accumulating knowledge is what the first month is all about. Just because it's still September doesn't mean we can't start our midseason run early, as we'll be relying on the overvaluation of a few teams that might be a little sleepy before the meat of their schedule.

Texas A&M @ Arkansas (+6, 53)

Both squads should be up for this sneaky-good neutral-site rivalry played in Dallas. However, one arrives at "Jerry World" with a better health prognosis than the other.

Texas A&M outlasted Auburn's awful offense last week, but the Aggies lost starting quarterback Conner Weigman to a foot injury. A&M fell out of the AP Poll after losing to Miami, but that wasn't on Weigman. The market seems to have downgraded A&M only slightly with sophomore Max Johnson taking over but not enough. Johnson played in last year's matchup with Arkansas, but the Aggies won thanks to De'Von Achane's brilliance and this wild defensive touchdown:

Meanwhile, all signs point to the return of star tailback Rocket Sanders - Arkansas' offensive engine. KJ Jefferson almost stunned LSU last week and the market's taken notice. This number has come off of +7. However, this should be another close game, with the Hogs live for the upset.

Pick: Arkansas (+6)

Buffalo @ Akron (-2.5, 54.5)

Hopefully, Akron has something left in the tank after a 4OT loss at Indiana that it should've won. Dual-threat quarterback DJ Irons was a stud in that game and should give Buffalo fits. The Bulls have done nothing but disappoint this season with a bad offense and a defense that's been even worse. If Buffalo comes up with a big effort out of the blue, we'll tip our cap, but it shouldn't be lined inside a field goal on the road against anyone at this point.

Pick: Akron (-2.5)

No. 6 Penn State @ Northwestern (+27, 45.5)

I'd feel a little bit better if we could get another point out of this spread before kickoff, given James Franklin's penchant for running up the score. That said, Penn State has maxed out at 38 points against FBS opponents this season and is following a "White Out" Saturday night shutout in State College with an 11 a.m. local kickoff at Northwestern.

Maybe Ben Bryant and the Wildcats' offense found something with three touchdown drives of 69 yards or more in a fourth-quarter comeback against Minnesota last week. If they can muster 10 points, they should be able to cover a massive number, with the Nittany Lions eyeing a week off.

Pick: Northwestern (+27)

Clemson @ Syracuse (+6.5, 52.5)

Like the first game discussed, the underdog has taken enough money to come off the key number of +7, and I think that's the correct move here as well.

With a second conference loss, Clemson's season all but ended in overtime against Florida State last week. Heading up to the dome in Syracuse is no one's idea of a bounce-back situation, taking on a team willing to hit you in the mouth over and over with Garrett Shrader and LeQuint Allen.

The Orange are way more into this game, and it'll show on Saturday.

Pick: Syracuse (+6.5)

Virginia @ Boston College (-3, 54.5)

Full disclosure - if you had told me that Boston College would score 28 against Louisville, I would've been pretty confident they'd cover last week. Despite giving up 56, the Eagles have taken money as a favorite this week, going from -3 to -3.5, which tells you all you need to know about 0-4 Virginia.

The Cavaliers' best defender is out for this game, and I'm not sure the return of nominal starting quarterback Tony Muskett is a good thing. Give me the better quarterback, defense, and coach, even if it means I'm giving 3.5 points.

Pick: Boston College (-3.5)

Arkansas State @ UMass (-2.5, 55.5)

This game opened around pick'em, which would be a fair line if we were expecting the version of UMass that's lost four straight. However, whether it's whispers out of Amherst or this line slowly creeping up to a field goal, the hope is that Taisun Phommachanh will be back under center for the first time since getting hurt at Auburn a week after a dominant win over New Mexico State. That version of UMass should be closer to -5, so we'll take the Minutemen under a field goal.

Pick: UMass (-2.5)

No. 2 Michigan @ Nebraska (+17.5, 39.5)

The last time we paid close attention to Nebraska, Jeff Sims was turning the ball over at an alarming rate. In the subsequent two wins against lesser opponents, the Cornhuskers switched to 6-foot-5 sophomore Heinrich Haarberg, who carried the ball 40 times for 255 yards. While the ball has still found the ground a few times, Matt Rhule has relied on a good defense to stabilize things.

Jim Harbaugh's back from suspension, but all he missed was the expected strangulations of Group of 5 opponents where Michigan didn't cover any of the big numbers. The Wolverines now go on the road for their first Big Ten opponent, with a total suggesting a low-scoring game. The 17.5-point spread will be too much to cover.

Pick: Nebraska (+17.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.