CFB Week 3 big games: Breaking down the best of a lackluster bunch

After a loaded college football slate in Week 2, Week 3 has one of the least attractive schedules imaginable. That's where betting swoops in to make things more interesting.

Last week, we saw Texas Tech and Tulane take arguably the two worst betting beats of the weekend, but these Saturday football offerings could be a bit more exciting if we play the card right.

No. 8 Washington @ Michigan State (+16.5, 57.5)

This game will be interesting because of what's transpired in East Lansing this week. Based on preseason ratings, I would've expected the Huskies to be 13-point favorites, as they were when the line first opened on Sunday. The spread likely crept up because head coach Mel Tucker isn't available and because of the presumed distraction surrounding the Spartans.

We're Washington buyers in these parts but, usually, these artificial adjustments to a point spread make the team nobody wants more valuable. After dominant home wins over Boise State and Tulsa - two teams that have been generally unimpressive - going on the road to the Big Ten is a difficult challenge for an offense that relies on big passing plays. Now that the Huskies need to win by more than two touchdowns, the Spartans are the side worth betting on. You may even get a better number by waiting as the commotion around Michigan State may skew the market further.

Pick: Michigan State (+16.5)

No. 11 Tennessee @ Florida (+6.5, 58.5)

Florida healed their wounds from a sloppy season-opening loss at Utah by beating up on FCS' McNeese State. Cool.

These teams' preseason market ratings suggested that Tennessee should be about nine-point favorites even after adjusting for the Gators' home-field advantage adjustment in The Swamp. What happened to suggest the Volunteers' rating should drop or the Gators' rating should rise? At least one had to occur to get this line under a touchdown. That said, oddsmakers opened Tennessee as the four-point favorite. The spread has been slowly creeping upward since then and, as long as it's under a touchdown, there's still some value left on Tennessee.

Pick: Tennessee (-6.5)

Colorado State @ No. 18 Colorado (-23, 59.5)

Usually, this game wouldn't hit our radar for a big game of the week but - be honest - you want to talk about Coach Prime and the Buffaloes.

Here's the progression for Colorado's estimated market rating in its three games:

By comparison, Maryland, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Minnesota, North Carolina State and Oklahoma State were all rated in the low 60s before the season started. Nebraska's preseason estimated rating was 58 and Colorado handled that challenge, so it could very well be at those teams' level.

Now that we've given Colorado credit as an above-average team, we have to acknowledge the change in requirements for success this week. If the Buffs win by three touchdowns, the hype for the program that has both Fox and ESPN doing pregame shows from Boulder this week won't subside - but that's also not enough to cover the spread here.

With Oregon and USC on deck - situations where we'd be more interested in Colorado since it might only be asked to not get blown out by conference powerhouses - the Buffaloes will be content with a comfortable win in Week 3.

That may not be all that simple though. Following a beating at the hands of Washington State two weeks ago, the Rams had an instant bye week to prepare for their in-state rivals. During that time, they've switched quarterbacks, going to redshirt freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, who threw for 10.5 yards per attempt after relieving Clay Millen.

An upset's unlikely, but it's been an emotionally charged two weeks for Colorado with bigger games around the corner. And Colorado State has been preparing for this like it's the biggest game of the year.

Pick: Colorado State (+23)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.