Stanley Cup Western Conference betting: Looking at in-series value after Game 2s
We've looked at the four series in the Eastern Conference as they shift within one time zone from Game 2 to Game 3. In the West, longer trips between new sites are on the docket as we take a closer look at the first segment of each series in preparation for this weekend.
Stars (-150) @ Wild (+130)
Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Even-strength numbers
| TEAM | xG | HDC | HDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stars | 5.19 | 21 | 1 |
| Wild | 4.34 | 20 | 4 |
It's been just one game for each, but our hypothesis that any appearance from Marc-Andre Fleury instead of Filip Gustavsson would be a mistake for the Wild was certainly supported after the latter was awesome in a Game 1 win, while the former allowed 3.32 goals above expectation in Game 2.
The Wild's even-strength production has come in the first two of four-plus periods in Game 1 and the third period of Game 2 - when they trailed by three goals. That suggests their pressure might be cosmetic, and we haven't seen the best of Jake Oettinger either, as he's allowed four goals on 20 high-danger chances at even strength and has just 0.67 goals saved above expectation.
Is there a bet?
The Stars' superiority in neutral game states and the possibility of Oettinger having better consistency are reasons to feel good about being twice committed to Dallas. Those two factors are perhaps why the series' odds have reverted back to pre-series prices, which normally wouldn't make a ton of sense with Minnesota now having home-ice advantage and the increased likelihood that we've seen the last of Fleury.
Oilers (-250) @ Kings (+200)
Friday, 10:00 p.m. ET
Sunday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Even-strength numbers
| TEAM | xG | HDC | HDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | 7.36 | 33 | 2 |
| Kings | 3.82 | 20 | 3 |
The Kings are getting outplayed by the Oilers, and a late tying goal in Game 1 followed by an OT winner is indicative of how they're barely tied in this series. Bettors have to ask themselves if it's a good or bad sign that these metrics exist while the Kings are accomplishing some of the things they'd hope for.
As Connor McDavid said after Game 2, the Kings' "goaltender is good." Joonas Korpisalo has a 2.08 GSAx and allowed just two goals against in high-danger situations. McDavid has just one assist, and now the Kings can easily match lines at home with Phillip Danault and Anze Kopitar. Los Angeles is also staying out of the penalty box, with just four power plays allowed - especially important with the Oilers' 2/4 mark on the PP.
Is there a bet?
The series price here has also reverted despite Los Angeles getting home-ice advantage, and the shift should benefit the Kings during five-on-five play. They're already staying out of the box and they have the goaltending advantage, so at +130, the Kings are the bet in both games this weekend.
Golden Knights (-145) @ Jets (+120)
Game 3, Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Even-strength numbers
| TEAM | xG | HDC | HDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Knights | 4.02 | 16 | 4 |
| Jets | 4.32 | 17 | 2 |
We thought that this series would be something of a coin-flip before it started, and if you look at the even-strength expected goals and high-danger chances, here we are.
The Jets should be hoping for better out of Connor Hellebuyck than his minus-0.52 goals saved above expectation, and better than 25% of the Golden Knights' even-strength high-danger chances finding the net. With stronger overall numbers and all four of his shutouts this season coming at home, Hellebuyck should be better in Game 3 and Game 4.
Is there a bet?
After two games, there's no reason to believe we're not headed for at least a Game 6 in this series, and while you'd hope an 8-seed would be an underdog even at home, a -110 price is short enough to take the Jets in Game 3.
Avalanche (-275) @ Kraken (+220)
Game 3, Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET
| TEAM | xG | HDC | HDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche | 6.05 | 21 | 4 |
| Kraken | 4.33 | 24 | 2 |
Using expected goals and high-danger chances, the Avalanche have only driven even-strength play at about a 52% rate, which is why bets on the Kraken in the first two games at around +175 netted a positive result despite the split.
Philipp Grubauer is second to Igor Shesterkin in GSAx through two games this postseason, so concern about goaltending can be tempered in the Pacific Northwest.
Is there a bet?
Though they've been better on the road this season, in their first-ever home playoff game, the Kraken can again capitalize on the kind of good start they got off to in the first two games. And unlike some of the other underdogs such as the Islanders, Lightning, and Wild, we're getting a decent price at +135 on the Kraken to retake the series lead.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.